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New fall in unemployment in France in July

The stabilization of the labor market was confirmed in July in France with an increasing decline in youth unemployment and a rise in job vacancies so that the executive is preparing a return to social and political agitation.

The number of jobseekers in category A, which includes those without work and actively seeking employment, fell for the second consecutive month, declining by 14,400 (-0.5%) last month in France, to 2,676,600 people.

He declined 8,600 (-0.3%) in June, which was the second decline year after the March.

By adding job seekers engaged in a Pool (Class B and C), the number of unemployed increased by 0.1%, however in a monthly basis in July (+5.300) for an increase of 8.1% year on year to 3,963,800 people (4,208,300 including Dom).

"It's positive, we have for the second consecutive month falling unemployment.It's an indication of stabilization of unemployment, "said Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde in an interview with Reuters.

"We have a range of indicators is positive and give us hope that this trend early (…) will probably keep", she added, citing the purchase intentions, ocean freight, advertising, the interim, the recovery of stocks, investments and consumption.

"Who says less of job seekers said wages and therefore more consumption and at the level of public finances, less unemployment and thus a situation of public finances Unedic-improved," continued Christine Lagarde while the government is preparing the draft budget 2011 will be announced in late September.

The executive confirmed last week its goal of bringing the deficit of France in 6% of GDP next year despite the lowering of a half-point to 2.0%, its growth forecast economy.

DOWN FOR THE YOUNG, THE RISE FOR OVER 50 YEARS

The upturn on the labor market due to an accelerated decline in youth unemployment.

Job offers collected by job center for their part, returned to the increase.

Among youth under 25 years, the number of unemployed declined by 2.8% in group A compared to June fell by 1.8% in one year.For categories A, B and C, the youth unemployment down 0.2% on month but a 1.8% increase over one year.

Job offers collected by Pole employment grew 3.6% in July in France and show an increase of 12.7% over one year.They were down by 0.6% in June from the previous month increased 7.1% over one year.

The long-term unemployed and those over 50 years, however, continued to grow.

For over 50 years, unemployment has increased by 0.8% in group A (+17.6% yoy) and 1.1% for the three main categories (+17.1% on year).

The number of long-term unemployed – registered at employment center for a year or more – rose 0.8% in July for categories A, B, C with a mass increase that is over one year (+27.6% ).

The detailed statistics also shows that entry to public service employment in Class A, B and C were down 2.4% from June, down 4.4% year on year.

The outputs of the same categories are in the same time remained stable but rose 4.1% over one year. Among them, radiation administrative advances of 7.3% compared to June, the search stops 11.5% and entries on probation by 17%.

The French economy has created 23,900 jobs in the market sector in the first quarter with growth of the economy by 0.1% and 35,000 in the second quarter with growth accelerated to 0.6%.

Unemployment according to ILO will be published Sept. 2 by INSEE. He stood at 9.5% in the first quarter (9.9% in counting overseas departments), the highest since the fall of 1999.

Crédit Agricole sealed by its subsidiary in Greece

Crédit Agricole has extended by one year the return to profit of its Greek subsidiary Emporiki due to credit losses more than expected because of the recession in Greece. The woes of its Greek subsidiary Crédit Agricole will require to spend a further depreciation of 400 million euros in its accounts the second quarter, after the 500 million spent last year.

The French bank, which bought Emporiki in 2006, told analysts still expected a pretax loss of 130 million euros for its subsidiary in 2011, instead of a profit of around 10 million expected initially. For 2010, the expected loss for Emporiki will also increase, to EUR -750 000 000 -350 000 000 cons around. Return to the green accounts is the Greek subsidiary of the blow pushed to 2012 instead of 2011.Around 12:30, the Crédit abandoned agricultural 4.9% to 9.472 euros, underperforming the sector index Stoxx 600 European banks (-2.13%). BNP Paribas and Societe Generale fell by 3.3% and 4.6%.

Battered stock market because of fears surrounding its exposure to the crisis in Greek, the title Credit Agricole sells more than 22% since January 1. Pressed by the market, the bank eventually amount to 850 million euro exposure to sovereign debt Greek."We realize qu'Emporiki always weighs more heavily on agricultural credit, with a cost of risk emerges from 450 million euros more than expected in the original plan," said Tom Bartholomew, head of credit research at Louis Capital Market.

Standardization in 2013

The economic crisis in Greece was in fact forced Crédit Agricole to harden its scenario losses on credit, which is increased by 450 million euros between 2010 and 2013. According to the bank, the cost of risk will normalize in 2013. Leaded by two successive years of losses in 2008 and 2009, Emporiki has also been recapitalized in March by Credit Agricole, to the tune of 989 million euros.

Its parent company now estimates qu'Emporiki will have a "specific need" for 550 million of additional capital by the end of 2011 to confront the crisis and complete its restructuring.Taken to a drastic plan to reduce its costs, the Greek subsidiary of Crédit Agricole had already planned last year to reduce its overhead 21% and close 57 branches, resulting in the departure of 1,500 employees.

The French bank believes that the decline in enrollment of Emporiki will be "faster" in 2010 but "slower than anticipated in 2011. In this scenario, the operating rate of Emporiki will improve faster than expected in 2011 to 62.5% instead of 68.8%.

French growth expected at 1.3% in 2011

The chances of achieving economic growth of 2.5% in France in 2011, as required by government depart according to a Reuters poll of economists, who consider the measures of fiscal consolidation in Europe will weigh on demand .

Seventeen economists polled by Reuters expect, thereby increasing the gross domestic product by 1.3% next year (median forecast), against 1.7% in a poll conducted in April equivalent.

The median forecast for 2010 is 1.3% against 1.4% in April.

"The austerity measures in France and neighboring countries will weigh on demand and we expect a decline in consumption and investment in a number of European countries," said Maxime Lemerle, an economist at Euler Hermes.

Economists now expect that consumer spending, a pillar of French growth, will increase by only 1.1% in 2011, when they expected 1.4% in April.

Over two thirds of French exports to Europe by the weak demand in the region should weigh heavily on trade, according to Maxime Lemerle, which forecasts growth of 1.1% of GDP in 2011, a cons, 8% previously.

The government expects growth to reach 2.5% annually between 2011 and 2013, which would help reduce the government deficit from 8% in 2010 to 6% in 2011, 4.6% in 2012 and 3% in 2013 .

Slower growth could lead to additional measures to reduce the deficit or raising taxes.

"If we have less growth, certain expenses will tend to increase as those related to employment. So I think they might have to raise taxes a bit," said Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas.

The Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said she would not rule to revise the growth forecast for 2011 after the publication in mid-August GDP figures for the second quarter.

His counterpart on the Budget, Baroin, said the deficit reduction targets were met, although growth was below forecast.

The government plans to reduce the deficit to 6% in late 2011, 40 billion euros less than in 2010.According Baroin, 15 billion will come from the extinction of the recovery plan, saving 14 billion and 11 billion of revenue increases.

Less risk of the French note, said an analyst at Fitch

France is in progress on structural reforms, which implies that there are now fewer risks today than the note of France has deteriorated, said Friday at a Reuters television analyst ratings agency Fitch.

The government of François Fillon has pledged to reduce its deficits and this week announced a reform of the pension system.

Asked if it was less risky than sovereign debt rating lowered or French today than a month or two, David Riley, director of sovereign ratings at Fitch, said: "Yes, well safe ".

"France is much more than it did before, particularly when it announced a stabilization plan and with no details," he said.

A project to reform the French government aims to restore financial equilibrium of pension schemes in 2018, in particular through the gradual increase of 60-62 years in 2018 the legal age of retirement.

The CAC 40 to drop off again, the sovereign risk returns

The Paris Bourse is distributed downward and fell below 3,600 points on Thursday mid-morning, the fears surrounding the sovereign debt of the euro area resurfacing and penalizing bank stocks.

In addition there are comments from the Federal Reserve of the United States, acknowledged Wednesday that a U.S. economic recovery faltering.

A significant gap between the yields (spreads) of debt Greek and German revived fears about the euro area.

The CAC 40 index, which opened in rebounding, losing 1.17% to 3599.27 points at 10:55, the next support lying at 3580.

BNP Paribas (-4.19%), Societe Generale (-3.01%), Dexia (-2.73%) and Credit Agricole (-3.05%) recorded the largest declines the CAC 40.

"The market fell because of Greece, the spreads diverge. It's affecting the banks," said a vendor.

Other major European markets have also turned down.

Raoul Sachs, edited by Dominique Reynolds

The BP boss made another blunder

The presence of BP boss Tony Hayward to a luxury yacht regatta on the Isle of Wight in full spill in the Gulf of Mexico has prompted a deluge of criticism, White House head, said Sunday that s 'acting in a "serious mistake".

The stunning images of sailboats cruising off the southern coast of Great Britain during the race "JP Morgan Asset Management Round The Island" turned Loop Sunday morning on U.S. television. The CEO of British oil giant was present Saturday, with family, to support the yacht "Bob", worth 300,000 euros, which he co-owns with two others.The boat finished fourth.

See also: Why BP has it all wrong

But the trip goes wrong side of the Atlantic, two months after the start of the spill, while every day brings new images of oiled birds or contaminated beaches by the millions of gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico.

"It's part of a long series of mistakes and blunders of communication," he told the secretary general of the White House Rahm Emanuel in an interview with ABC television broadcast Sunday. "I think we can all conclude that Tony Hayward not start a second career in public relations consultancy," joked the top U.S. official."This is a serious mistake," he said, addressing a new pic to the Director General of the British group: "To quote Tony Hayward, he found his life before.

Author of several communication blunders, including Mr. Hayward said of the disaster: "There is nobody who wants more than me that all this ends, I want my life before."

BP immediately sent his spokesman to the front to try to extinguish the fire. "Wherever he is, he is still in touch with what is happening" on the oil spill, said one of them. It is also his "first day off" since the beginning of the disaster, said another.

In vain, well beyond the White House, critics recycled again and again on all sides. For Greenpeace, the attitude of Mr. Hayward "puts salt in the wounds" of victims of the spill, while the New York Times noted on Sunday that Mr.Hayward had "triggered a new controversy." "The culmination of arrogance", has even dropped the Republican Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, one of the states affected by the spill. "The yacht should rather be there picking up and clean the oil," he said on Fox News.

These remonstrances conclude a difficult week for the controversial boss of BP, which is expected to retire soon from the daily management of the crisis.Auditioned Thursday to Congress, an officer was entitled to the same ton of comments from elected officials shake their heads at the mistakes in front of the BP oil spill.

The British group would also raise $ 50 billion to fund the cost of oil spill in which the fund of 20 billion dollars that BP has agreed to create this effect, according to British press.

It is also to reassure the markets after the steep decline of BP action.

BP has also ensured he paid $ 104 million in response to complaints from residents of the Gulf of Mexico affected by the spill, indicating having received a total of 64,000 complaints.

The group gets an average total of 25,000 barrels of crude per day, according to U.S. Coast Guard, while the well located at 1,500 m depth spits each day between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels (up to 9.5 million liters) .

The French car market still rising

Sales of new cars in France have continued to rise in April, to 1.9% from April 2009, but at a much more slowly, reflecting an impact of declining car scrapping and leaving the uncertainty about the rest of the year.

"This figure is normal. We see a gradual reduction of the effects of scrappage" observes François Roudier, spokesman for the Committee of French car manufacturers.

The spokesman noted "a decline in registrations and orders on new line", small cars that benefited most from the car scrapping. Meanwhile, "we see a rise in average range on some models," he adds.

Carlos da Silva, an analyst at IHS Global Insight, a judge even when the result of April "a little surprising" and speaks of "semi-surprise"."The compact segment is doing rather better than what we expected" while "small cars to fall again mechanically," he notes.

Moreover, "manufacturers have continued to put much money on the table to try to compensate" the premium reduction. They have indeed offered to their customers numerous discounts and promotions. In this context, May will be "a little month of truth," said Carlos da Silva, who expects a decline it expected in April.

"I do not see how that can withstand much more, plus there is not really new models," he said.

French manufacturers are considering a European market decline 9 to 10% this year.1,000 euros last year, the scrapping bonus increased to 700 euro from 1 January, but for vehicles ordered before December 31, the premium remained at its former level for deliveries until the end of March.

This measure was prompted a boom in orders at the end of the year, registrations recorded in the first quarter up 17%. In the first four months of the year, the increase was 12.9% compared to the same period of 2009.

The Minister of Industry Christian Estrosi welcomed in a statement of "the good performance of the market", which "demonstrates the effectiveness of the government strategy of gradual withdrawal of the scrappage scheme".

On 1 July, the scrappage decline further, to 500 euros.

The month of April has been more favorable to French brands, up 8%, as foreign brands, down 4.9%.Of the 190,986 new cars registered last month, the French brands accounted for 56.1% of the market.

The increase was 17.2% for the Renault group and 7.3% for PSA Peugeot Citroen. At Peugeot, we judge that "the effect of scrappage continuous" and "concerns an order for two 206 + and 207," the Director of Commerce France, Olivier Veyrier, said in a statement.

Greece is finally saved it?

Never has a country had not yet obtained a loan of that amount: the countries of the euro area and the IMF have pledged – conditionally – 110 billion euros to Greece three years. A rescue plan for unprecedented growth. Greek crisis is far from over.

The € 110 billion is enough?

Greece needs money, lots of money to finance its huge debt, this year close to 300 billion euros and is expected to peak in 2013 to nearly 150% of GDP. Now the country that is experiencing the worst financial crisis in its history, no longer able to finance on the markets by issuing bonds. Or is prohibitively expensive. Loans from the EU and the IMF at a rate "preferential" 5% are therefore welcome.They will allow Greece to avoid having recourse to financial markets for at least 12 months according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to the IMF 18 months or almost three years according to Natixis. For Philippe Sabuco, economist at BNP Paribas, the plan "gives Greece a breath of oxygen, time to clean up its finances without the pressure of markets". "This is likely to reassure the markets," he assures.

The market pressure is she back down?

A little, even if financial markets have allowed the development aid for Greece with skepticism. The situation has improved – in moderation – on the front of Greek government bonds, whose rates remain at very high (around 8.59% for bonds of 10 years and 9% for bonds to two years ). European shares closed broadly higher on Monday, May 3, but the euro remained below $ 1.32.But no matter, since Greece will now and for at least one year to contract.

Greece can it succeed in its fiscal?

In return for financial assistance from the EU and IMF, Athens is committed to reduce by ten points over its budget deficit by 2014, equivalent to 30 billion euros in savings. Cups of public wages and public spending, freeze pensions, increase in VAT, tax and taxes on alcohol, cigarettes and gasoline are on the menu of the Greek government. With regard to economic analysts, the plan of adjustment is "doable." "Provided it is well established," warns Laurence Boone of Barclays Capital. Politically, its adoption by the Greek Parliament is not in doubt, the socialist majority in power supported by the main right-wing party.However, the pill will be more difficult to move public opinion.

Read also: What would happen if France swallowed the potion Greek

The Greeks are they willing to accept the cure of austerity?

Even if the popular support in the person of Prime Minister George Papandreou remains strong, opinion polls show growing opposition to austerity measures. For the Greeks, the plan is largely synonymous with painful efforts: life will become more expensive, their purchasing power will fall and unemployment threatens to explode. The public sector, the main focus of the austerity measures, is the most hostile. The unions are ready to fight against this shock therapy. They call for a new – the third in less than three months – day nationwide strike Wednesday, May 5 The mobilization will be a test of the government's ability to impose its plan.

When Greece Will she get out of the crisis?

The downside of this fiscal restraint is the recession that looks worse-than-expected decline of at least 4% of GDP this year and 2.6% in 2011, -2% in 2009. "Fighting against the economic crisis, as is now the priority for Greece," said Philippe Sabuco. But "this new program of fiscal consolidation will have a depressive effect on domestic demand, which could lead, ultimately, tax revenue by less than expected," said economist of BNP Paribas. To support the return of growth expected in 2012 (+1.1% increase in GDP by Athens), the Greek government plans to make more flexible the labor market. It also intends to fight against tax evasion which, according to economists, could rebuild the Greek budget of several percentage points – the black market economy represents between 20 and 40% of Greek GDP.However, Laurence Boone Regrets, "there is little detail in the Greek plan on structural reforms to raise the country's growth. The Greek'économie suffers from several weaknesses: it is not competitive and dependent on cyclical sectors at a lower value (shipping, tourism and agribusiness).