Greece is finally saved it?
Never has a country had not yet obtained a loan of that amount: the countries of the euro area and the IMF have pledged – conditionally – 110 billion euros to Greece three years. A rescue plan for unprecedented growth. Greek crisis is far from over.
The € 110 billion is enough?
Greece needs money, lots of money to finance its huge debt, this year close to 300 billion euros and is expected to peak in 2013 to nearly 150% of GDP. Now the country that is experiencing the worst financial crisis in its history, no longer able to finance on the markets by issuing bonds. Or is prohibitively expensive. Loans from the EU and the IMF at a rate "preferential" 5% are therefore welcome.They will allow Greece to avoid having recourse to financial markets for at least 12 months according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to the IMF 18 months or almost three years according to Natixis. For Philippe Sabuco, economist at BNP Paribas, the plan "gives Greece a breath of oxygen, time to clean up its finances without the pressure of markets". "This is likely to reassure the markets," he assures.
The market pressure is she back down?
A little, even if financial markets have allowed the development aid for Greece with skepticism. The situation has improved – in moderation – on the front of Greek government bonds, whose rates remain at very high (around 8.59% for bonds of 10 years and 9% for bonds to two years ). European shares closed broadly higher on Monday, May 3, but the euro remained below $ 1.32.But no matter, since Greece will now and for at least one year to contract.
Greece can it succeed in its fiscal?
In return for financial assistance from the EU and IMF, Athens is committed to reduce by ten points over its budget deficit by 2014, equivalent to 30 billion euros in savings. Cups of public wages and public spending, freeze pensions, increase in VAT, tax and taxes on alcohol, cigarettes and gasoline are on the menu of the Greek government. With regard to economic analysts, the plan of adjustment is "doable." "Provided it is well established," warns Laurence Boone of Barclays Capital. Politically, its adoption by the Greek Parliament is not in doubt, the socialist majority in power supported by the main right-wing party.However, the pill will be more difficult to move public opinion.
Read also: What would happen if France swallowed the potion Greek
The Greeks are they willing to accept the cure of austerity?
Even if the popular support in the person of Prime Minister George Papandreou remains strong, opinion polls show growing opposition to austerity measures. For the Greeks, the plan is largely synonymous with painful efforts: life will become more expensive, their purchasing power will fall and unemployment threatens to explode. The public sector, the main focus of the austerity measures, is the most hostile. The unions are ready to fight against this shock therapy. They call for a new – the third in less than three months – day nationwide strike Wednesday, May 5 The mobilization will be a test of the government's ability to impose its plan.
When Greece Will she get out of the crisis?
The downside of this fiscal restraint is the recession that looks worse-than-expected decline of at least 4% of GDP this year and 2.6% in 2011, -2% in 2009. "Fighting against the economic crisis, as is now the priority for Greece," said Philippe Sabuco. But "this new program of fiscal consolidation will have a depressive effect on domestic demand, which could lead, ultimately, tax revenue by less than expected," said economist of BNP Paribas. To support the return of growth expected in 2012 (+1.1% increase in GDP by Athens), the Greek government plans to make more flexible the labor market. It also intends to fight against tax evasion which, according to economists, could rebuild the Greek budget of several percentage points – the black market economy represents between 20 and 40% of Greek GDP.However, Laurence Boone Regrets, "there is little detail in the Greek plan on structural reforms to raise the country's growth. The Greek'économie suffers from several weaknesses: it is not competitive and dependent on cyclical sectors at a lower value (shipping, tourism and agribusiness).
Published on 04 May 2010 in Uncategorized, advertising, calculation, connection, marketing, by admin
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