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Sanofi, the reconstruction of the research will be long

Sanofi is expanding its portfolio of medicines to be able to rise to valuation levels comparable to its peers, but it will take time, analysts say.

The French laboratory, shaken by the lapels of the anti-arrhythmic Multaq Iniparib and cancer, has made the past five years only two new products on the market (and Multaq Jevtana in prostate cancer). It plans to launch 19 drugs by 2015, six next year, but warns that it expects no more than 5% to 7% contribution to sales in this horizon.

Of "minibusters", ironically some analysts, however, willing to give time to a group that has appointed the head of its research Elias Zerhouni, a world-renowned scientist.Since that appointment, the European regulator, however, restricts the use of Multaq, and Iniparib proved a failure in the last phase of its development.

"Sanofi has made significant progress in improving the profitability of its research but we know the results in eight or nine years. We have to accept a long development cycle", says Michael Leacock, an analyst at RBS.

The group announced this year more positive Phase III, and for including Lemtrada Aubagio (multiple sclerosis), Zaltrap (colorectal cancer), Visamerin / Mulsevo (prevention of venous thrombosis) and Lyxumia (type II diabetes).It is the latter that analysts consider the most promising, with potential sales they estimate at about 600 dollars in 10 years.

DIFFICULT TRANSITION TO MANAGE

"This is a cohort of small to medium products that will not be enough to transform the group, but at least it has more risk (of the type of anti-obesity pills) Acomplia when suddenly a product may weigh 15% to 20% of sales and cause large deviation in the share price, "an expert in the field into perspective.

Three years after the failure of Acomplia and the arrival of CEO Chris Viehbacher, Sanofi has launched a strategy to find new sources of growth that does not depend on its research and especially not the 'blockbusters', these drugs can make more than one billion dollars in sales.

Spurred by the loss of its major patents, the group has drastically reduced its costs, carried out an extensive cleaning of its project portfolio and achieved a score of acquisitions exceeding 23 billion euros, 14.8 billion for the purchase of the U.S. biotech Genzyme.

These efforts now allow to predict an average growth in sales of at least 5% by 2015 and an increase in earnings per share higher than the turnover.

At Bryan Garnier, Eric Le Berrigaud believes that the next six launches of the group potential "of around four billion euros in full peak at the end of the decade, with an additional lever on Lemtrada if it turns out be sure. "

"Are we willing to pay 'upfront' history to be born again Sanofi in 2013, while it was still difficult to cross two years?" Asked he, however.

The title Sanofi, which has lost 13% in 2010, returned 3.5% since the beginning of the year.The stock is trading with an average ratio of price / earnings ratio (PER) expected to close in September, against nine for the European.

"There is a beautiful story of stock market recovery to play but it will not materialize quickly. The big challenge is to manage the transition between the death of the great product, the rise of products from the pipeline and related growth drivers strategy, such as diversification and emerging markets, "said one banking analyst.

Karl Heinz Koch, of Helvea, notes that "most of their products are secondary and are not first class."For him, the portfolios of Novartis and Bayer are better than Sanofi, which is comparable to those of Roche and GlaxoSmithKline, and similar but better than Merck and AstraZeneca.

Beatrice Muzard, Natixis, concedes that "Sanofi back a little better in terms of development," but believes that the group "is still far short of the very good students like Roche, Novartis and Glaxo same."

"It's not for the pipeline that we recommend buying the title," she adds. "What motivates us is the visibility of growth and the fact that the group has secured a growth of at least 5%, a level that exceeds 60% as revenue grew at double-digit ".

The deficit of the social security reduced to 14 billion in 2012

The government today introduced the project financing of social security for 2012. The deficit of the general expected to decline by one billion to 18.5 billion in 2011 down to about 14 billion or slightly less in 2012.

Valérie Pécresse said on Thursday, September 22 France 2 that the deficit of social security would be reduced to "14 billion" in 2012, adding that "for the health sector, the deficit will be less than 6 billion euros". The budget minister in the day to present the project financing of social security for 2012 (PLFSS). She said that the deficit of the health insurance was $ 12 billion in 2010. She assured that the deficit of social security would "fall in two years by 40%."

On pensions, "expenses are contained" through the "efforts of the French" and the pension reform of 2010, she said.Regarding the health insurance, the government decided to "delisted" certain drugs, but "very little, only the drugs useless." A list will be established by the Authority for Health and the Ministry of Health. This should bring 40 million euros. It is also envisaged that "over 600 million savings on drug prices." "We will ask the laboratory to lower drug prices," said the minister.

According to information obtained by AFP, the deficit all branches (sickness, old age, family, work injury / illness) is expected to decline by one billion to 18.5 billion in 2011 down to about 14 billion or slightly less in 2012. The deficit of sickness, most importantly, will fall below 10 billion in 2011.The government intends to pass it under the 6 billion next year, according to a source familiar with the matter. The latest available figures, given in June by the Commission of Audit of the Social Security (CCSS), reported a "hole" in the social security of $ 19.5 billion for 2011.

In a wider area, adding the deficit in the Old Age Solidarity Fund, which funds the minimum pension, the deficit would reach a total of just over 22 billion in 2011 and around 18 billion in 2012. In early September, in its annual report on Social Security, the Court of Auditors, taking the broadest scope (general, diet and other small FSV) was alerted to a deficit of close to 30 billion (29.8) .

Morgan Stanley reduced its forecast for global growth

Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecasts for the global economy for the years 2011 and 2012, the revision is stronger for developed countries.

In a note published Thursday, the U.S. investment bank now expects growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9% in 2011, against 4.2% previously and 3.8% in 2012, instead 4.5%.

The GDP of developed countries is expected to grow by an average of 1.5% in 2011 and 2012 (against 1.9% and 2.4% forecast earlier), according to economists at Morgan Stanley who make a downward revision larger scale for European growth in 2012.

"We're lowering our forecast for GDP even in the euro area, and this time a full percentage point over the period 2011-2012 and we now expect GDP growth of 0.5% on average (significantly below our previous forecast of 1.2%), "they say, adding that the consensus expects a 1.5% growth in 2012.

Economists at Morgan Stanley state that they bring back their 2011 growth forecast for the eurozone to 1.7% against 2.0% previously.

These revisions, they say, stem from mistakes made in recent economic policy of the United States and Europe, as well as the prospect of harsher austerity measures in 2012.

For emerging markets, they see a slowdown in growth of 7.8% in 2010 to 6.4% in 2011 (against 6.6% expected earlier).For 2012, they lower their forecasts for the emerging 6.1% (against + 6.7%).

If they feel that developed countries are flirting with recession (understood as two consecutive quarterly contractions in GDP), they dismiss the scenario of a return to recession.

"In this context, we expect more rate hikes from the ECB but a rate cut next year – we are lowering our forecast on the refi rate (the ECB's main rate, Ed) to 1% by end 2012 against 2% previously, "wrote economists at Morgan Stanley.

After two increases this year, the ECB refi rate is currently 1.5%.

"As anxiety on growth gains, we expect that the 10-year Bund yield fell 2%," they add, by advocating caution on equities and underweight cyclicals.

The Fed is pessimistic about the economy, rates remain very low

The Federal Reserve said Tuesday it would keep interest rates at a record low at least until mid 2013, without announcing new measures to support the economy.

The statements of the U.S. central bank were eagerly awaited after the lowering of the sovereign rating of the U.S. Standard & Poor's Monday has resulted in a rout of financial markets.

Investors are struggling to interpret the possible impact of this commitment by the Fed on U.S. growth since the Dow Jones operates in a very volatile from the statements by the Fed.

The Federal Reserve, which reduced its growth forecast at its June meeting, continued to be pessimistic for the first global economy, saying that the increase in gross domestic product this year will be lower than expected.

"The release of the Fed is very negative outlook for the economy," said Omer Esin, market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange.

"By committing to maintain interest rates at an extremely low level until far into the future, the Fed implied that it anticipates a period of slow growth much longer than expected."

Following a meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC), the U.S. central bank, as expected, kept the fed funds rate within a range from 0% to 0.25%.

The Fed had reduced interest rates at that level in December 2008, in a financial crisis.

THE FED SAYS HE WILLING TO DO MORE

"The committee believes that today's economic conditions – including a low utilization rate of resources and moderate outlook for inflation over the medium term – are likely to ensure an exceptionally low level of federal funds to at least mid 2013, "said the Fed in a statement.

Three members of the monetary policy meeting – Richard Fisher (Dallas Fed), Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis) and Charles Plosser (Philadelphia) voted against this commitment to keep rates low for two years, suggesting a monetary policy committee divided.

Not since a November 1992 meeting, three members of the Monetary Policy Committee had opposed the decisions taken by the committee as a whole.

The Federal Reserve also suggested it was ready to do more to support the economy, saying it still had tools to do it and would use them if necessary.

Some believe that it can be concluded from this estimate that the Fed has not closed the door to a third repurchase program obligations or "EQ3", which was highly expected by many market participants.

"Sixty percent of the market had anticipated a form of EQ3. But there is no QE3 but there is an explicit commitment to low levels until 2013 (…) This is a factor of certainty and that should help to generate higher levels of lending activities, "said Alberto Bernal (BullTick Capital Markets).

The Fed also reiterated its policy of reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds in its portfolio without specifying the calendar in the matter.

Direct: The Paris Stock Exchange returns in the green

After the plunge in Asian stock markets, European markets seem to have avoided a crash. And Paris, the first trading fro even positive. The world leaders are mobilized to prevent a global crash. Monitoring minute by minute. European stock markets limit the damage on Monday.

9:41: The main European stock markets have not collapsed Monday in the opening. The interventions of the G7 finance leaders and the European Central Bank appear to have prevented a panic. After opening lower, most European markets are ironed in the green a few minutes after the first exchanges. Shortly before 9:30 (7:30 GMT), Paris was up slightly (0.15%), London climbed 0.35% and Frankfurt did not lose more than 0.20%.Madrid (2.6%) and Milan (3%) were very relieved by the announcement of an intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the bond market.

9:36: rebound in financial stocks. Bank stocks offered a strong rebound on Monday in early trade on the Paris stock exchange, through the redemption of bonds of fragile by the European Central Bank (ECB). There are some over 6%, after losing considerable ground in recent sessions because of the debt crisis. At 9:32 (7:32), BNP Paribas gained 5.85% to 42.99 euros and Societe Generale 5.47% to 28.93 euros, totally ignoring the loss of triple-A by the United States.

[See also: The United States lost their triple A, what consequences?]

9:21: Shanghai ended down.The composite index of Shanghai Stock Exchange lost 3.79% Monday, giving up 99.6 points to 2526.82 points to fall, due to the loss of triple A U.S. revives fears of global crisis dealers said.

9:18: The Paris Stock Exchange returns in the green in early trade Monday, taking 0.15%, ignoring the loss of the triple A of the United States for a rebound s'offir careful after ten days of declines.At 9:14, the CAC 40 gained 4.77 points to 3283.33 points.

9:17: The London Stock Exchange opens down, the FTSE-100 index lost 24.09 of the key values ​​points, or 0.46%, about 10 minutes before the start of trading at 5422.90 points.

[See also our file: What you should remember the debt crisis of the U.S.]

9:06: The index of the star Dax Frankfurt Stock Exchange at the opening down 1% to 6170.69 points against 6236.16 points at the close Friday, limiting losses after a week where he lost over 13% of its value.

9:03: The ECB is willing to buy the Spanish and Italian debt, announced the French minister of Economy Baroin.

9:00: Paris opens down. The Paris Bourse opens a moderate decrease of 0.74% to 3254.36 points. The CAC 40 index 24.20 points to 3254.36 let loose points. It is a historical series of 10 sessions of consecutive decline, unheard of.

In London, the FTSE-100 opened down 1.15%. Madrid opens up 0.63%, Milan 0.09%.

8:50: The G7 to preach a "strong international financial Systel." Before the opening of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 issued a statement in which they pledged to take "all necessary measures" to support financial stability and growth. They reaffirm "our common interest in a strong and stable international financial and [reaffirm] our support for the exchange rate determined by the markets." They point out that excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates has negative implications for economic and financial stability.

8:38: Moscow down. Moscow stock exchanges are down over 2.5% at the opening.

8:30: Sharp drop expected in Paris. The Paris Bourse is expected to open sharply down Monday.The futures contract on the CAC 40 lost 2.53% forty minutes before the opening of the session.

8:28: Relaxing expected in Spain and Italy. The 10-year rate Spanish and Italian relax strongly Monday in the bond market after the announcement by the European Central Bank that it would buy back bonds in the euro area.

8:21: The euro rose. The euro firmed on Monday morning in Tokyo against the dollar after the shock wave over the weekend by the downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt. Around 6:00 GMT, the European currency was worth 1.4337 dollars, after falling to 1.4055 dollars in Asia Wednesday – its lowest for three and a half weeks.

8:20: The plan of the European Central Bank BCE.La announces that it wants to calm the fire in the markets by buying more government debt of countries in the Eurozone in trouble on the secondary market.She did not say which country the debt it had redeemed, but markets expect it to intervene on the obligations of Italy and Spain, which bond yields are at record levels both recent weeks.

7:30: China accuses Europe and the United States. The United States and Europe are endangering the economic recovery in the world "does not assume responsibility" in the sovereign debt crisis, on Monday accused the People's Daily, official organ of the Chinese Communist Party. The newspaper called the West "to take their courage to cut the ties that bind their policies and strengthen coordination with developing countries."

7:05: The gold through the roof. Gold recorded a new record Monday on the market in Hong Kong. It through the roof of 1700 U.S. dollars per ounce for the first time, because of its safe haven status."People withdraw their money (in other markets: ie), including the dollar and euro, to put it in gold and the Japanese yen," he told Dow Jones Newswires the agency broker based in Tokyo .

7:00: Asian stock markets down. They also suffer the blow. Asian stock markets started falling Monday morning, the first markets to open after the downgrade of the United States. The leaders of major economies in the world have mobilized until the last moment to prevent a global crash. The Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 2.18%, for example at the end. The Seoul stock exchange closed down about 3.82%, 2.56% of Sydney. Hong Kong widened its losses, with -4.04% and Shanghai lost in the morning to more than 4%. Bombay lost 3.08% one hour after opening.

The Air France passenger traffic up 6.9% in July

Air France-KLM, Europe's largest airline by revenue, reported in July an increase in passenger traffic coupled with higher revenues but a decline in cargo business.

Action Air France lost 5.74% to 6.56 euros by 9:20, amid fears of a relapse of the global economy and extension of the debt crisis in the eurozone.

The Franco-Dutch company rose 6.9% in passenger traffic last month, higher than the 5.4% increase in capacity operated on the month.

The load factor was up for his 1.2 points to 87.3%.

"Unit revenue per available seat kilometer (RASK) excluding currency has improved over the previous year, driven by traffic in business class," said Air France said in a statement.

Networks Americas and Asia, the load factor in both cases exceeded 90%, while traffic has increased by 9.6% and 8.1%.

The European network is itself remained "dynamic" last month (+7.2%) despite the debt crisis.

However, freight transport remains to the death as in previous months.Unrest in Africa and the Middle East, combined with overcapacity in from Asia, have resulted in a decrease of 2.7% in cargo traffic in July.

Capabilities having remained broadly stable, the load factor fell 2.1 points to 64.0%, while unit revenue per tonne kilometer (RATK) excluding currency is down from one year to another .

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) said last week that the tendency to transport passengers remained on an upward trend, but at a rate lower than the 10% rate observed during the rebound following the last economic crisis.

"The slowdown reflects the deterioration in economic growth and rising costs caused by rising fuel prices and the higher taxes in some countries," said IATA.

The association also noted that freight volumes, a barometer of trade, had not shown growth since July or August 2010.

The Chinese car manufacturer Geely plans to invest in Indonesia

Chinese Geely Automobile Holdings plans to invest two billion dollars (1.4 billion euros) in Indonesia to meet the high demand for vehicles in the country, a newspaper reported Wednesday.

Geely could make Indonesia its production base for exports to other countries in Southeast Asia, including Australia and New Zealand, we read in the newspaper Kontan, quoting the Director General of a subsidiary of Geely, Budi Pramono.

The Indonesian economic growth comes from increased spending of the middle class and the economy could grow 6.8% this year, according to the central bank.

Geely, which owns 14 dealerships in Indonesia, has a sales target of 2,450 vehicles this year.

The Chinese company plans to build a factory in Cikarang, near the capital Jakarta by 2014 to manufacture 30,000 cars a year, the newspaper said.

Geely bought Volvo from Ford in August 2010 for $ 1.8 billion (1.4 billion), concluding the largest takeover of a foreign automaker by a Chinese.

The Paris Bourse is close to its lowest in 2011

The Paris Stock Exchange declined sharply and approaches the lowest of the year in early trade Friday after four consecutive sessions of decline against a background of political stalemate in the United States on the ceiling of debt and doubt resolution the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Around 9:30, the CAC 40 index lost 1.02% to 3674.92 points after a low of 3649.96 points, or five dots above the lower end of the year reached on July 18th (3645 points) .

The results of large groups is not likely to improve the climate created by the sovereign debt crises in Europe and the United States, investors punish poor performers.

Veolia (-6.58%) shows the largest drop in the CAC 40 after being forced to lower its 2011 targets.

Schneider fall of 4.3%, Japan and commodity prices have had a negative impact on the first half.

Vallourec gained 1.76% and is the subject of buying on the cheap after a fall of almost 17% following the announcement of a drop in its second quarter results.

London and Frankfurt lost 0.46% 0.81%. Of the European indices, the EuroStoxx 50 yields 1.07% and 0.69% Eurofirst 300.

The euro declined and traded around 1.4290 dollars against 1.4330 on Thursday.

The optimime market falls after the aid package to Greece

After initially reacted favorably to the agreement reached last week, financial markets are again skeptical Wednesday, including the voluntary participation of the private sector. The Paris Bourse ended sharply lower at 1.42%.

Blur, ineffective to stop the contagion, inadequate in terms of fiscal federalism, the agreement last week to save Greece towel analysts and critics have so far failed to convince a sustainable market.

Financial markets have responded well on Thursday and Friday after the heads of state and governments in the euro area are agreed to open the door to a Greek debt relief. But a week after the extraordinary summit, optimism has fallen.

The Paris Bourse, signing its third straight session of declines, lost 1.42%. Even pessimistic on other European markets.London lost 1.23%, 1.32% and Frankfurt Eurostoxx 50 1.65%.

The rates at which borrowing countries known as "fragile" in the euro area, most prominently in Spain and Italy, have started to increase in the bond market.

"What was said and done is just one more step, the minimum to avoid an imminent collapse" of the euro area, judged severely Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Le Monde two days after the announcement of the aid plan in Athens.

"We can not talk of a summit for nothing, but the agreement has too many gray areas and investors do not like uncertainty," said Franklin Pichard for his part, Director of Barclays stock.

The great unknown is the private sector, that is to say, banks, pension funds and other insurance companies."We heard a stake to 50 billion euros, but it is unclear who will bring what and over what period," said Geraud Missonnier of at Saxo Bank.

Several options are indeed available to private creditors. They will exchange their debt obligations against the longer term, to accept a discount to the value of bonds they hold or commit to buy the new securities Greek. "This smoke screen laid down by European leaders to avoid offending the sensibilities, does not facilitate the assessment of costs for each bank and thus the impact on their results," says Christian Parisot, an analyst for broker Aurel.

Similarly, the principle of involvement of private creditors on a "voluntary" under the terms of the agreement signed Thursday, maintains the focus.Many economists believe in the fact that banks could be forced to participate in the effort by regulation, for example.

The risk of contagion is still there

The risk of contagion the Greek case to other countries in the euro area does not seem to spread. "We gave ways to the European Financial Stability (EFSF) for Greece, but the states will probably not the same to help Italy and Spain," said Wilfrid Pham at Natixis. To reassure the markets sustainably, we should go to him, much further. "We have not advanced the issue of fiscal federalism," he laments.

And wonder. "The threshold allowed for a deficit to 3% of GDP is it still relevant today? Should we not consider setting up a supranational body to coordinate fiscal policy?".

Finally, markets are worried about the implementation of the highly political agreement to be voted by all the Parliaments of the States of the euro area to take effect. Adoption should not be a problem in France, but other countries may drag their feet.

The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has sought to reassure the public on Wednesday, refusing to "sign a blank check" for the redemption of bonds of countries in difficulty by the EFSF, at the risk of blurring once again the message of Europeans about the virtues of their rescue plan.

European shares end up, the ACC is 1.61%

European shares finished the session again on the rise, driven by quarterly results and the hope of encouraging a settlement of debt problems in the U.S. and Europe on the eve of a crucial summit of leaders of the euro area.

The CAC 40 index gained 1.6% or 59.65 points to 3754.60 points.

Other major European markets also finished up: London and Frankfurt gained 1.10% 0.40%. Of the European indices, the Eurofirst 300 took 1.32%.

The banks have benefited from news that the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) could be used to redeem bonds on the secondary market. Societe Generale gained 5.14%, to 36 euros.Dexia jumped nearly 9% to 1.8910 euros and Commerzbank of 6.31% to 2.51 euros.

Stoxx index of European banking was up 3.69%, its highest gain since Jan. 12.

An authorized source in the euro area reported that the euro area was discussing the possibility of allowing the fund to rescue the euro zone to extend credit lines to countries and to redeem bonds on secondary markets.