The composite indicator of business climate in manufacturing industry fell by two points to 95 and remains below the 100 that corresponds to the long-term average of this indicator.

All 23 economists polled by Reuters on average expected a figure of 95, with estimates ranging from 93 to 97.

The indicator of business climate as a whole, including services, construction, wholesale and retail trade, a parallel decline of two points to 93.

"The turning point indicator remains in the negative zone in which he had switched to in September.Sectoral indicators are all turning into a negative zone, "said INSEE in a statement.

The service indicator down two points to 92.

The meetings of the Eurogroup and the Ecofin Council will kick off a new week decisive for the future of the single currency.

The appointments take effect on 1 November 2011.

Gervais Pellissier will retain his position as executive director in charge of finance and information systems group, is it said in a statement.

In addition, Group CEO, Stéphane Richard decided to appoint, with effect from 1 November 2011, Delphine Ernotte Cunca, Executive Director of Orange France, Pierre Louette, Executive Director in charge of the General Secretariat, Division France and Operators purchases and Bruno Mettling, Executive Director in charge of human resources.

Jean-Philippe Vanot, France Telecom has therefore now four deputies.

The action France Telecom closed Wednesday at 13.11 euros (0.69%). She lost 15.93% since the beginning of the year.

"The treaties do not allow it." In explaining his refusal of the French proposal to transform the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) in the bank, allowed to refinance at the ECB, Berlin relied on legal argument. This is one reason that stands. But that does not really understand the inner motivations of this veto.

Avoid a slap in the Bundestag

To convince Germany, Angela Merkel is not only that we must win, but all members of the Bundestag.The German Constitutional Court has recently decided as follows: all decisions on the euro zone must obtain the approval of Parliament. And given the difficulties faced by the Chancellor with his coalition, the vote of an instrument that could be used to finance massive debt fragile seemed complicated. All the Green MPs a vote last week has mandated an agreement of 620 elected and not 42 members of the Committee Affairs budget as planned initially. "Presumably, if the French proposal was adopted, the vote could have given rise to heated debates and passionate," said Céline Antonin, an economist at the OFCE.

Preserve the independence of the ECB

The institution is far out of his terms for a year and a half.She began to buy back debt from fragile countries in May 2010 (Greece, Italy and Spain in particular) and a further 4.5 billion euros of bonds last week, more than double the week before. In total, the amount of transactions on the secondary market amounted to 170 billion euros. The ECB has also put hundreds of billions of euros of liquidity available to banks that have struggled to find on the market conditions as favorable. But Germany has reluctantly agreed to these interventions. So was it not possible for her to give the EFSF a kind of drawing right on the ECB via the proposed banking license. Berlin would prefer to see the guardian of the euro back to its original objectives of controlling inflation, according to Céline Antonin. "It was created on the model of the Bundesbank.And right now we try to avoid it too so its mandate, even if the buyback is expected to continue in the coming weeks, "said the economist. According to the German press, the capacity of EFSF not would not be sufficient to take the baton, they should buy back the debt jointly.

Avoid stopping just over the ECB balance sheet

If the French solution was preferred, the EFSF would have borrowed directly from the ECB. In exchange, the Fund would have a guarantee of debt securities of countries weakened. This would have meant to burden the balance sheet of the institution and, ultimately, to require states to put the hands in their pockets to recapitalize the institution. Germany wanted not to get there, especially since the ECB has already accumulated a lot of bad loans."Central banks have already full of rotten loans, credit claims more toxic than the debts of the states in trouble," said the economist and the OFCE, Jean-Paul Fitoussi.

The rating agency Standard & Poor's said Monday that the AAA rating of France, the best possible, was "justified", with a stable outlook, according to Moritz Kraemer, head of European states in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Triple A is "justified", he said, adding that S & P maintains a "stable outlook on the rating for the moment." "As an agency we report rating the risk of a decline in the note by changing the negative perspective", said Mr. Kraemer, which is therefore now not the case in France.

Mr. Kraemer was questioned the ability of France to maintain its triple-A given the state of public finances and debt. "However, we continue to monitor the discussions in the political line of sight with the presidential election approaching, to know the strategy to reduce the debt ratio," he detailed. He added that "the main challenge lies in public finances," a major problem in the euro zone for him. Mr. Kraemer said that France has already taken steps to control its spending and reduce its deficit and found particularly "solid" pension reform.

These words occur while the representatives of the Belgian, French and Luxembourg have agreed Sunday to provide a guarantee of 90 billion euros to Dexia's funding to facilitate its dismantling.Moody's, one of the competing U.S. S & P, said Monday that the impact of this guarantee on the note of the French state will be "limited".

As for Fitch, she believes that "exposure to Dexia is quite modest relative to GDP (gross domestic product) and does not in itself a significant risk to the note of France," said Maria-Mroueh Malas, Director the division rulers.

The agency also believes that the government's commitment to stabilize the banking sector is beneficial because it removes uncertainty and helps to resolve the crisis in the euro area. "France still enjoys an exceptionally strong financial flexibility and prudent economic management, strengthening its ability to withstand economic shocks," said Fitch.

The Minister of Finance, Baroin ruled Monday that the decommissioning has an impact on the sovereign rating of the Hexagon, the three major rating agencies. "For the rating agencies, we are one of the best worldwide brands and will remain" thanks to structural reforms and the policy of reducing expenditures and compliance with the schedule that the French government has become, at he promised.

The French laboratory, shaken by the lapels of the anti-arrhythmic Multaq Iniparib and cancer, has made the past five years only two new products on the market (and Multaq Jevtana in prostate cancer). It plans to launch 19 drugs by 2015, six next year, but warns that it expects no more than 5% to 7% contribution to sales in this horizon.

Of "minibusters", ironically some analysts, however, willing to give time to a group that has appointed the head of its research Elias Zerhouni, a world-renowned scientist.Since that appointment, the European regulator, however, restricts the use of Multaq, and Iniparib proved a failure in the last phase of its development.

"Sanofi has made significant progress in improving the profitability of its research but we know the results in eight or nine years. We have to accept a long development cycle", says Michael Leacock, an analyst at RBS.

The group announced this year more positive Phase III, and for including Lemtrada Aubagio (multiple sclerosis), Zaltrap (colorectal cancer), Visamerin / Mulsevo (prevention of venous thrombosis) and Lyxumia (type II diabetes).It is the latter that analysts consider the most promising, with potential sales they estimate at about 600 dollars in 10 years.

DIFFICULT TRANSITION TO MANAGE

"This is a cohort of small to medium products that will not be enough to transform the group, but at least it has more risk (of the type of anti-obesity pills) Acomplia when suddenly a product may weigh 15% to 20% of sales and cause large deviation in the share price, "an expert in the field into perspective.

Three years after the failure of Acomplia and the arrival of CEO Chris Viehbacher, Sanofi has launched a strategy to find new sources of growth that does not depend on its research and especially not the 'blockbusters', these drugs can make more than one billion dollars in sales.

Spurred by the loss of its major patents, the group has drastically reduced its costs, carried out an extensive cleaning of its project portfolio and achieved a score of acquisitions exceeding 23 billion euros, 14.8 billion for the purchase of the U.S. biotech Genzyme.

These efforts now allow to predict an average growth in sales of at least 5% by 2015 and an increase in earnings per share higher than the turnover.

At Bryan Garnier, Eric Le Berrigaud believes that the next six launches of the group potential "of around four billion euros in full peak at the end of the decade, with an additional lever on Lemtrada if it turns out be sure. "

"Are we willing to pay 'upfront' history to be born again Sanofi in 2013, while it was still difficult to cross two years?" Asked he, however.

The title Sanofi, which has lost 13% in 2010, returned 3.5% since the beginning of the year.The stock is trading with an average ratio of price / earnings ratio (PER) expected to close in September, against nine for the European.

"There is a beautiful story of stock market recovery to play but it will not materialize quickly. The big challenge is to manage the transition between the death of the great product, the rise of products from the pipeline and related growth drivers strategy, such as diversification and emerging markets, "said one banking analyst.

Karl Heinz Koch, of Helvea, notes that "most of their products are secondary and are not first class."For him, the portfolios of Novartis and Bayer are better than Sanofi, which is comparable to those of Roche and GlaxoSmithKline, and similar but better than Merck and AstraZeneca.

Beatrice Muzard, Natixis, concedes that "Sanofi back a little better in terms of development," but believes that the group "is still far short of the very good students like Roche, Novartis and Glaxo same."

"It's not for the pipeline that we recommend buying the title," she adds. "What motivates us is the visibility of growth and the fact that the group has secured a growth of at least 5%, a level that exceeds 60% as revenue grew at double-digit ".

Moody's lowered the rating one notch to the long-term debt and deposits of Societe generale de Aa2 to Aa3 with a negative outlook. Moody's believes that the impact of supervision on the Bank Financial Strength Rating (BFSR) will be limited to one notch.

For Credit Agricole, Moody's downgraded the BFSR a notch, from C + to C, and brought the note from the long-term debt and deposits one notch, to Aa2 from Aa1.

About BNP Paribas, the agency kept under review with negative implications the long-term rating Aa2 and deposits, and the note of B-BFSR.She believes it is unlikely that this under surveillance results in a downgrade of more than one notch.

The Federal Housing Finance (Federal Housing Finance Agency), which oversees the giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, criticized those institutions which include Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank or Societe Generale, have sold bonds backed by home loans in these transactions by presenting inaccurate one day.

The director of the FHFA, Edward DeMarco, seeks to minimize the losses of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which had to be nationalized under cover of the 2008 crisis.Fannie and Freddie guarantee bonds backed by home loans.

The banks ended sharply lower on Wall Street. Bank of America lost 8.34% to 7.25 dollars, JP Morgan Chase 4.6% to 34.63 dollars and Goldman Sachs 4.55% to 107.06 dollars.The KBW index of banking sector has lost 4.5%.

The FHFA and other investors say the banks in securitizing mortgages granted to individuals for the purpose of selling them to investors, have not made all the necessary checks and concealed, or not presented correctly, the quality the underlying loans and the borrowers' ability to pay.

Gradually, as borrowers can not meet their deadlines have become more numerous, the value of securities backed by loans dropped, resulting in losses for investors.

The FHFA JP Morgan continues to securities losses totaling more than $ 33 billion.The complaint against Société Générale is more modest: about $ 1.3 billion.

In his complaint against Merrill Lynch, the FHFA says: "The defendant falsely stated that the underlying mortgage loans meet certain guarantees or guidelines, including presentations that have significantly exaggerated the ability of borrowers to repay their mortgage (…)".

FACTORS OF CONCERN

The federal agency in housing finance has already filed a complaint against UBS in July, seeking to recover at least $ 900 million incurred over $ 4.5 billion of debt.

Some fear that the new case Friday formalized rules that interfere with the negotiating are the largest banks with the attorneys general of 50 states on the issue of abuse that took place in mortgage lending.

Banks could indeed be reluctant to enter into this global settlement if they know of other state bodies are also likely to claim their money.

The major U.S. banks are already facing the possibility of having to pay tens of billions of dollars in settlement of disputes relating to their activity in the mortgage and their practices in foreclosure.

Such expenses would further reduce their capital levels and may reduce their ability to lend even as the housing market is at half mast and that the U.S. economy as a whole shows signs of slowing down.

Bank stocks suffer as signs that the Fed could start to sell short-term debt recorded in its books to purchase securities of longer maturity in order to lower long-term returns, as part of stimulus.

This action, known in English as "Operation Twist", could affect the margins of the banks that fund themselves short term and lend long term.

Sign of the concern surrounding the banking sector, the Federal Reserve has asked Bank of America to present the measures it would take if business conditions were deteriorating, reports the Wall Street Journal Friday, citing people familiar with the file.

Losses resulting from the accelerated deterioration of subprime and other mortgages have forced the government to nationalize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac September 7, 2008. Since then, American taxpayers have spent over $ 140 billion to stay afloat these two pillars of real estate financing.

After four months of slight decline earlier this year, unemployment in France has increased considerably and the. In July, the number of unemployed rose by 36,100. It is the largest monthly increase since October 2009. It is particularly disturbing that this is the third consecutive month of increases. "Predictably, with growth at 0%," Xavier Bertrand has responded in an interview with Le Figaro on Friday. "But that does not detract from my belief that unemployment will go back down," he added.

It appears optimistic, our Minister of Labour. As rising unemployment reflects a depressed economic conditions.As recalled by Xavier Bertrand growth lights made the place the second quarter. And the second half does not look better, the two engines of growth – business investment and household consumption – being seized. The government also revised down its growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 – to 1.75% against 2.25% and 2 before. Some analysts are even more pessimistic: they expect a growth of only 1.5% this year and 1% next year.

Or to create jobs, the French economy should grow by at least 1.5%. And to reduce unemployment is to say, create enough jobs to absorb the growth of the labor force, growth must be at least 1.8%. And that's in normal times. The problem is that the French economy out of two years of zero productivity and a year of recession – in 2009.The catch must be more important. To reduce unemployment, it would now grow by at least 2.3% per year. We are far. "In order to reduce unemployment without growth, there are only two treatments, said Eric Heyer, deputy director of analysis and forecasting department of the French Office of Economic conjectures (OFCE).

Administrative treatment of unemployment

France has the chance – or luck – to have a dynamic workforce, due to a high birth rate (more than two children per woman). According to INSEE, the labor force, which stood at 28.35 million people in 2010, is expected to grow by an average of 110,000 people a year by 2025. More than 9000 people a month who register for employment center. To reduce the workforce, just out lists of people registered as unemployed.How? "In the radiant, by offering internships, apprenticeships and training, or putting them into early retirement and by providing job search," Eric Heyer lists.

Radiation administrative job seekers jumped unusual in July (25.1% over the month and 7% year on year). The SNU FSU, the majority union at employment center, sees the consequence of the recent computerization of letters sent to the unemployed. Some economists also point out that past governments in pre-election period, have used an administrative treatment of unemployment.

The current government is not immune to this temptation. Last February, Nicolas Sarkozy announced the release of 500 million euros to encourage the use of long-term unemployed and young people. On the menu: skills training and learning.Or people in learning or training out of lists of employment center. However, the government has no intention of using the subterfuge of early retirement, on the contrary, the exemption from job search (DRE), which allows the unemployed aged 60 and over not to look employment and reach retirement, will be removed in 2012. As for the pension reform passed in 2010, it extends the legal age of retirement and the age of full retirement. Which penalizes the elderly first. Since January 2008, unemployment of over 50 jumped 57%.

Social treatment of unemployment

"The alternative to reduce unemployment when growth is not the appointment is that the public sector taking the baton in the market sector," said Eric Heyer. This includes all forms of assisted contracts, that is to say, employment contracts mainly funded by the state.This is called the social treatment of unemployment. It is a great classic from the left. Martine Aubry, the Socialist candidate in the primary, has already announced that its first action as president, if elected in 2012, will be to remove the tax exemption of overtime to fund the creation of 300,000 "jobs of the future "- the little brothers of youth employment in 1997.

But this solution is also widely used on the right. The government is not talking about jobs for young people but CAE (support contracts in employment in the public sector) and ICE (employment initiative contracts in the private sector). 440 000 of these subsidized contracts to be financed by the state this year.

"While it is not sustainable contracts is not a panacea, recognizes Eric Heyer.But these subsidized contracts have two advantages: one is to target audiences that have the most difficulty in finding employment [the young and long-term unemployed for example], the second is to provide purchasing power to more, which is likely to boost consumption so the country's economic machine. "

Yoshihiko Noda, who believes the upward trend of the yen as more and more unilateral, also indicated that Japan was in close contact with other countries on this issue.

"We will monitor the markets even more closely than before to detect any speculative activity.We leave open any measure, and we will act decisively when necessary, "he said.

The phrase was repeated several times during the day by the Minister of Finance himself, but also by the Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Secretary of the Government Yukio Edano.

Friday the yen hit a new historic high of 75.95 against the dollar. Anticipating action by the Japanese authorities, the markets have brought the dollar to rise to 77.23.Shortly before 0800 GMT, the dollar was trading against 76.70 yen.

Signs of strength in Tokyo, however, did not allow the equity markets to hide the fear of a return to the U.S. recession, and the Nikkei closed Monday down to a low of five months .

August 4, Tokyo intervened unilaterally in the currency market, but the operation did not prevent minvestisseurs continue to buy yen a safe haven in times of crisis.

According to Kyodo News, the trade minister said Monday Banri Kaieda coordinated action with the U.S. on currency markets would be preferable.

The names of Banri Kaieda and Yoshihiko Noda are most often cited to replace Naoto Kan when it leaves the head of the government, perhaps by the end of the month.