The French economy has rebounded more than expected in the third quarter, supported once again by household consumption, but could fall to zero by year end and go into recession in early 2012 when the clouds of global economic pile up.
Gross domestic product grew 0.4% between July and September, slightly higher than expected average of the 31 economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% increase."Employment is zero, the most dangerous."
VICIOUS CIRCLE
In a separate statement, INSEE has announced that the employment of non-agricultural market sectors had created "only" 7,400 jobs between July and September, which amounts to a zero contribution.
If consumption and investment spending of households supported the performance of GDP in the third quarter, spending by non-financial firms are divided into lower, 0.3%, an alarming signal judged by professionals.
Outgoing Prime Minister and opposition leader have agreed on the names of the ministers of the next coalition government. They should announce it in the day. President Papoulias with George Papandreou and Antonis Samaras.
Greek Prime Minister outgoing, George Papandreou and his conservative rival, Antonis Samaras agreed to form and announce "that day" the new coalition government that they negotiate for three days, told AFP a government source . "There is an agreement on the course, which provides that Mr. Papandreou will make by the beginning of the afternoon at the head of state, who then convene a meeting of leaders of political parties during which agreement will be recognized and announced the composition of the new government, "the source said, but to come forward on behalf of the future prime minister, whose only certainty is that this is not Mr.Papandreou.
An ad for a room of 4.5 m² sold 38,000 euros has rekindled the controversy over the excesses of the real estate in Paris. Should we see evidence of a "market shacks" and the activity of the slumlords? Elements of response. http://www.flickr.com/photos/gcattiaux/
"Avenue Théophile Gautier, the seventh with no elevator. Refurbished room with skylights, approximately 4.5 m2 floor, WC on landing. Ideal office or residence. Price: 38,000 euros … Or nearly 8500 euros per m2. " Wednesday blamed the Liberation journalist Tonino Serafini, this ad has revived the controversy over the excesses of the housing market in Paris.
"Prices are high in Paris in general. They can go up to 12,000 euros per m²" says Jean-Yves Mano, the deputy mayor of Paris in charge of housing. Theophile Gautier Avenue, the average price rises in 9200 and euros, or 700 more than the closet in question.According to the election, "it's the size that is unreasonable. This announcement is outrageous and I hope no one will respond favorably" says he. The site pap.fr, who had published, was also quick to remove it.
But it is far from an isolated supply. "Further announcements show that there is a market shacks" said Libération journalist also on his blog. It evokes a room as well rue du Faubourg Saint-Denis (Paris IX) of 6 m2, or another in the 17th, 7 m2, both at 45,000 euros. But who are the real buyers in this market? What is their purpose?
Merchants of sleep?
The law prohibits a surface lease under 9 m², considered minimum level of decency. "But I do not see anyone buying a small area at this price if not for the purpose of return" admits Jean-Yves Mano.
Faced with the housing crisis, Marc Pigeon, president of the federation of real estate developers, advocates PTZ redeploy funds to benefit the construction of new housing. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeanlouis_zimmermann/271745826/sizes/z/in/photostream/ You publish a white paper under the title The housing priority for the Republic. Is it a guide to good ideas for presidential candidates?
Why not? What is certain is that the current situation is no longer tenable. We are in a deep housing crisis that it is imperative to get out. Housing is on average nearly a quarter of the household budget, a record.Between 2000 and 2010, the purchasing power of households grew by 43%, while new home prices jumped 84% and those of existing homes soared by 241%! This discrepancy between the increase in household incomes and rising house prices is no longer eligible. Why this situation? When you look over a long period, there was only after a vigorous effort for building the "Thirty Glorious Years", a break occurred during a decade (1975-1988) where the number of homes built has remained well below changing needs. It is as if an unmet demand for housing was made that was never resolved thereafter, creating a persistent quantitative imbalance between supply and demand for housing.One solution to overcome the present crisis: build much more! For this, we must mobilize all the levers.
You state that the modification of zoning regulations is the first project that must be addressed?
There is no point to heaps of money on the table if the planning rules do not change. Land use planning should be the keystone of the edifice. This means first a simplification in the process of granting building permits: we can divide the time by two. Then we have to stop wanting to build the city over the city. Instead, we must develop new urban spaces. Grounds exist. Look at the periphery of city centers, there are always lots available to build new shopping centers. Why not build there, of new housing by bringing all the necessary public services.This can be done since France is a country in Europe or the population density per square kilometer is the lowest in Europe.
Should we return to the products of tax exemption?
No. But it can not happen today financial resources of the private investor to build more. But it is absolutely necessary condition these tax benefits. More rents out these programs will be low, more tax benefits will be significant. That's an interesting idea to take off social housing or intermediate.
Precisely, one of the evils of this crisis is the blocking of social housing. How to get out?
It is true that the system of social housing is completely blocked: the gap between rents and those of the public park private park is so huge that people refuse to leave a public housing even when their family or financial situation would allow the.Where waiting lists and the freezing of rotations. We must break this deadlock. The idea is to create private law firms, 50% owned by private companies and 50% by housing agencies. Their main objective is to develop a rental housing through: that is to say housing where rents are cheaper than in the private sector but more expensive than social housing. Families could then leave the park freeing HLM housing. One could imagine a system where after ten years, tenants become owners of their homes. With this system, social housing finds its primary function: housing the poor.
Unlocking the social home ownership?
In 1990, the lower fringe of the middle class represented 80% of home buyers. Today, they are more than 30%.Therefore restoring the purchasing power of these households. We spend huge sums in interest-free loan without reaching resolvabiliser these households. I propose that the 1.3 billion spent in the financing of PTZ in the former are redeployed. € 900 million could be spent to finance the construction of new homes on the market with price caps and revenue caps for buyers. The remaining 400 million could be used to fund social home in the former in exchange for renovations heat.
The Japanese government said Monday it for the first time in six months, revised downward its assessment of the economic situation, saying the slowdown in global growth weighed on the pace of recovery in output and exports.
The study involved monthly in Tokyo ten days after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its monetary policy unchanged, based on the assumption of a recovery at a moderate pace of the Japanese economy.
On this occasion, the central bank had, however, highlighted the growing risks weighing on the country's economic activity, the European debt crisis and the depressed global growth.
"The Japanese economy is still expanding while the decelerating pace of recovery against a backdrop of persistent difficulties related to the earthquake (11 March)," the government in its study.
The third world economy plunged into recession following the natural disaster occurred at the end of winter.
But production and exports have registered a marked increase in recent months, companies have made great efforts to replace the various production lines and delivery and to reopen factories.
The government has revised down its expectations in terms of exports, industrial production and household spending for the first time since April.
"Even if transport equipment support exports, electronic products and machinery equipment weaken, reflecting the slowdown in the global economy," said Shigeru Sugihara, head of macroeconomic analysis to the General Secretariat of government.
The report is, as always, writes that the government expects the Bank of Japan that support the economy "by appropriate monetary policy actions and decisive, and in close cooperation with the government."
According to sources familiar with the matter, the Japanese central bank is likely to revise downward its growth forecasts in a semi-annual report to be published by the end of the month.
Nearly three-quarters of Japanese companies expect a stagnation of the economy in the coming months, and 12% of them see it fall into recession because of growing concerns about global activity, shows a Reuters poll published on Friday .
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Tuesday by three notches note of Italy, explaining see an increase risk of financing for euro area countries with high levels of debt.
Moody's reduced the rating of Italian government bonds from Aa2 to A2, a grade lower than that of Estonia.The U.S. agency maintains a negative outlook on this rating, which means that further falls will be a few years.
On 19 September, Standard and Poor's had lowered its rating on Italy as it was previously A/A-1 to A + / A-1 +.
Italy now finds itself firmly at the center of the crisis of debt in the euro area.
"The negative outlook reflects the economic and financial risks in Italy and in the euro area," Moody's said in a statement.
"The uncertain environment of markets and the risk of further deterioration in investor sentiment could limit the country's access to public debt markets."
Financial markets are worried more and more weak growth, a deficit of 120% of gross domestic product and a coalition government in difficulties.
The decision by Moody's is not really a surprise. The agency had said Sept. 17 it would complete its review of Italian finances for a possible downgrade within a month.
Silvio Berlusconi said that the decision was "expected".
"The Italian government is working with maximum commitment to achieve its fiscal objectives," said the head of government.
Moody's believes, however, a defect of Italy is a probability "distant".
Borrowing costs have surged in Italy the past three months.And if they were brought under control, thanks to purchases of Italian bonds on secondary markets by the European Central Bank.
So last month, an Italian ten-year loan had to be based on the promise of a return of 5.86%, the highest level of this type of paper since the launch of the euro there over ten years.
The austerity plan of 60 billion euros from the Italian government to enable it to accelerate by one year to 2013 its goal of a balanced budget.
Poitou-Charentes has formalized the launch of an investment bank for SMEs. 33 million of regional funds will be available in two years. Segolene Royal, Socialist candidate for the primary (here at a press conference in Paris June 29, 2011).
The Regional Council of Poitou-Charentes, headed by Ségolène Royal, the Socialist Party candidate in the primary, formalized Monday the creation of a regional investment bank for SMEs, said the community in a statement. "With the bank, SMEs can now apply to a single paperless service, managed by the region, common to all funding partners," says the region is now arguing that "SMEs will benefit from consulting and a more simple, faster and more relevant. "
With the help of European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), € 33 million of regional funds will be made in two years, available to the bank. The region also hopes to get input from the Deposit or private investors to "finance EUR 280 million investment and activity in the territory."
This initiative was announced September 12 by Ségolène Royal, along with five other actions for SMEs. The primary candidate for the PS but noted that "starting a business is not valued in France," and expressed his "firm belief" that it was necessary to ensure that France "is recovering from tissue SMEs ". It was also suggested to "reserve a portion of public contracts to SMEs".
The region has also announced that it creates a semi-public company, ESTER (Solar Electricity Territories) Poitou-Charentes regional development of solar power. ESTER Poitou-Charentes "aims to invest in making solar power plants with an investment program of 200 million by 2015, representing 120 megawatts of power, or one and half times the power currently installed Poitou-Charentes, and 500 permanent jobs, "the statement also indicates the regional council.
Dexia Bank is ready to sell 20 billion euros of assets to restore its finances, Les Echos wrote in their Monday edition.
"The Franco-Belgian bank crystallizes the difficulties of his peers: its viability through the sale of assets too fast cash customers for nearly 20 billion euros," reads one in the business daily.
"Another lever is to externalize 80 billion of loans to local governments, but the modalities of this operation are still in limbo," the newspaper without elaborating.
A Dexia spokesman was unavailable for immediate comment this article.
Le Figaro wrote Saturday that Dexia, Caisse des Depots and Post Bank negotiated the creation of a new public to fund local government, an operation that would allow Dexia to reduce its balance sheet.
Requested by Reuters on Friday night, the three banks did not comment.
The governor of the Banque de France, Christian Noyer, said about Dexia that "the model faces a number of problems," in an interview with Journal du Dimanche.
"It must continue to restructure," he says.
The French authorities said Sunday that the system created in 2008 to help banks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers was always available on event "extraordinary".
However, they insisted that French banks, whose market value has shrunk in a few weeks, were strong and they did not need injections of public capital demanded by some stakeholders in the financial markets.
The government today introduced the project financing of social security for 2012. The deficit of the general expected to decline by one billion to 18.5 billion in 2011 down to about 14 billion or slightly less in 2012.
Valérie Pécresse said on Thursday, September 22 France 2 that the deficit of social security would be reduced to "14 billion" in 2012, adding that "for the health sector, the deficit will be less than 6 billion euros". The budget minister in the day to present the project financing of social security for 2012 (PLFSS). She said that the deficit of the health insurance was $ 12 billion in 2010. She assured that the deficit of social security would "fall in two years by 40%."
On pensions, "expenses are contained" through the "efforts of the French" and the pension reform of 2010, she said.Regarding the health insurance, the government decided to "delisted" certain drugs, but "very little, only the drugs useless." A list will be established by the Authority for Health and the Ministry of Health. This should bring 40 million euros. It is also envisaged that "over 600 million savings on drug prices." "We will ask the laboratory to lower drug prices," said the minister.
According to information obtained by AFP, the deficit all branches (sickness, old age, family, work injury / illness) is expected to decline by one billion to 18.5 billion in 2011 down to about 14 billion or slightly less in 2012. The deficit of sickness, most importantly, will fall below 10 billion in 2011.The government intends to pass it under the 6 billion next year, according to a source familiar with the matter. The latest available figures, given in June by the Commission of Audit of the Social Security (CCSS), reported a "hole" in the social security of $ 19.5 billion for 2011.
In a wider area, adding the deficit in the Old Age Solidarity Fund, which funds the minimum pension, the deficit would reach a total of just over 22 billion in 2011 and around 18 billion in 2012. In early September, in its annual report on Social Security, the Court of Auditors, taking the broadest scope (general, diet and other small FSV) was alerted to a deficit of close to 30 billion (29.8) .
Japan will act firmly against any speculation on currency markets, said Monday the Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda, thus demonstrating the will of Tokyo to fight against the soaring yen.
Yoshihiko Noda, who believes the upward trend of the yen as more and more unilateral, also indicated that Japan was in close contact with other countries on this issue.
"We will monitor the markets even more closely than before to detect any speculative activity.We leave open any measure, and we will act decisively when necessary, "he said.
The phrase was repeated several times during the day by the Minister of Finance himself, but also by the Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Secretary of the Government Yukio Edano.
Friday the yen hit a new historic high of 75.95 against the dollar. Anticipating action by the Japanese authorities, the markets have brought the dollar to rise to 77.23.Shortly before 0800 GMT, the dollar was trading against 76.70 yen.
Signs of strength in Tokyo, however, did not allow the equity markets to hide the fear of a return to the U.S. recession, and the Nikkei closed Monday down to a low of five months .
August 4, Tokyo intervened unilaterally in the currency market, but the operation did not prevent minvestisseurs continue to buy yen a safe haven in times of crisis.
According to Kyodo News, the trade minister said Monday Banri Kaieda coordinated action with the U.S. on currency markets would be preferable.
The names of Banri Kaieda and Yoshihiko Noda are most often cited to replace Naoto Kan when it leaves the head of the government, perhaps by the end of the month.