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German consumer confidence declined as expected

German consumer confidence is expected to slightly deteriorate in September, reaching a low of ten months in the context of the debt crisis in the eurozone and fears of a recession in the U.S. shows Thursday the monthly survey institute GfK.

This leading indicator of consumer sentiment, calculated on the basis of a survey of about 2,000 people, spring down to 5.2 in September against 5.3 in August, but in line with the expectations of the analysts interviewed by Reuters.

The component of macroeconomic expectations fell to 13.4 against 44.6 the previous month.But the purchase intentions were up, supported by a strong labor market.

"The deterioration of the debt crisis and the sharp fall in stock markets around the world at the moment weighs only slightly on consumer sentiment," said the institute GfK said in a statement.

"The domestic setting extremely positive, unemployment down and wages up offset these negative factors."

The unemployment rate in Germany came out in May and June to 7.0%, its lowest since the reunification of the country.

But recent statistics have fueled doubts about the ability to Berlin to continue playing its role as a locomotive of the euro zone, amid debt crisis and fears of a global economic slowdown.

In the second quarter, Germany posted a slower growth to just 0.1%, weighed down by a lowered consumption and low investment in construction.

German business morale has meanwhile posted a dip in August marked the most since the 2008 crisis, according to figures released Wednesday.

In this context morose, German households now fear being asked to contribute to increasing attempts to resolve the budget crisis European, is the institute GfK.

Largest economy in the euro zone, Germany pays more than a quarter of the invoice bailouts granted by the region to try to stem the debt crisis.

European shares fall further, fear of a recession

European shares ended down Friday, concluding a third straight week against a background of restless fears of a relapse into recession in major developed and sovereign debt crisis.

The CAC 40 index dropped 1.92% to 3016.99 points, but varied between a low of 2947.91 points (-4.2%) and a high of 3078.28 points (0.07% ).

For the week the index lost 6.13%, after falling 5.48% Thursday, bringing its slide to 17.82% since the beginning of the month.

"Above all, the anticipation of 'double dip' recession in the double way early 1980s, which haunted investors.This contraction is somehow accepted and caused by the austerity budget set up by European politicians, "said Eric Galiegue, president of Valquant.

Other major European markets, London has sold 1.01% 2.19% Frankfurt and Milan 2.46%. The European indices EuroStoxx 50 and 300 respectively Eurofirst fell 2.15% and 1.66%.Since the beginning of the month, the EuroStoxx 50 loose 19.15%, 13.32% and the London Stock Exchange German 23.45%.

On Wall Street, the S & P 500 fell by 0.15% and the Dow Jones 0.33% at midday in New York.

"The second quarter growth was well below expectations on many aspects: sluggish domestic demand, external demand risk and a clear concern about the financial variables, crystallized by market volatility," recalls Erick Muller Chief Investment Officer of Fidelity bond range.

The situation remains very FRAGILE

The implied volatility of the Eurostoxx 50 has remained virtually unchanged Friday (0.29%) but jumped 71.29% in three weeks.

"The month of August will bring real improvement on any of these points.The overall situation remains very fragile for the second half and the markets have adjusted the valuation of assets as a result, but suddenly long term, "said Erick Muller.

In this context, cyclical stocks and banks have once again suffered, Renault (-4.69%) showing the greatest decline in the CAC 40 lost 4.27% BNP Paribas in Paris.

Elsewhere in Europe, banks Unicredit and Lloyds fell 4.8% and 5.8%, while car manufacturers Porsche and Fiat gave up 4.45% and 4.3%.Their respective sector indices ended lower by 1.81% and 2.86%, the car even accusing the largest decrease sector.

Since the beginning of the month, European banks have unscrewed from 21.85% and 27.74% of the car.

The same causes leading to the same effect, investors fled to the assets with the least risk, such as gold, which recorded a new record of 1,877 dollars an ounce and earns nearly 14% since late July, or Yields on government bonds rated.

The rate of the 10-year Bund and of the French OAT maturing well remain virtually unchanged in late afternoon around by 2.1% and 2.77%, after falling in the morning at 2.031% and 2.713%.

"Despite the deterioration in the rating of the United States by Standard and Poor's, despite concerns in general about the astronomical amounts of public debt, interest rates on government bonds with very broad market fall," Valquant said in a weekly strategy note.

"This is a sign that investors are in full 'flight to quality', and they seek refuge in government debt," says the company.

Wall Street expects a lot of indicators and quarterly

Still reeling from the worst three weeks that the U.S. markets have been in two and a half years, investors should seek from this Monday a break.

The blow by Standard & Poor's debt to the United States now behind them, the market should turn to the outlook for the U.S. economy and also look for evidence that policy makers in the euro area are able to limit the crisis debt.

The meeting Tuesday of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel in Paris should therefore be decisive for the markets.

The movement of widespread sale last week's losses increased in the S & P 500, which fell by 12.4% since July 22.If there is no indication that this trend is over, the sessions Thursday and Friday, however, ended up with lower volatility.

The week begins would be quieter, especially if the expected economic indicators still away the prospect of a return of U.S. recession.

"Each number indicates that the economy is not heading into recession will be a calming factor for the market in the coming weeks," said Peter Cardillo, economist at Global Rockwell Capital in New York.

Indicators next week will be closely monitored, including regional studies conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Philadelphia on manufacturing and sales in real estate.

The manufacturing sector is currently one of the stronger U.S. economy, but the ISM report for the month of July, published on 1 August, reported an unexpected slowdown.

However, other more recent data, including sales to detail () suggests that the U.S. economy manages to stay the course.

The results of the distribution groups are also clear from the horizon, and quarterly giant Wal-Mart, expected Tuesday, are eagerly awaited in this regard.

According to data compiled by Thomson Reuters, earnings for the group should have increased by 11.8% in the second quarter.

Several other major retailers as well as computer must publish in the week, including Dell and Home Depot on Tuesday, Wednesday Target and Gap, and Hewlett-Packard on Thursday.

The Air France passenger traffic up 6.9% in July

Air France-KLM, Europe's largest airline by revenue, reported in July an increase in passenger traffic coupled with higher revenues but a decline in cargo business.

Action Air France lost 5.74% to 6.56 euros by 9:20, amid fears of a relapse of the global economy and extension of the debt crisis in the eurozone.

The Franco-Dutch company rose 6.9% in passenger traffic last month, higher than the 5.4% increase in capacity operated on the month.

The load factor was up for his 1.2 points to 87.3%.

"Unit revenue per available seat kilometer (RASK) excluding currency has improved over the previous year, driven by traffic in business class," said Air France said in a statement.

Networks Americas and Asia, the load factor in both cases exceeded 90%, while traffic has increased by 9.6% and 8.1%.

The European network is itself remained "dynamic" last month (+7.2%) despite the debt crisis.

However, freight transport remains to the death as in previous months.Unrest in Africa and the Middle East, combined with overcapacity in from Asia, have resulted in a decrease of 2.7% in cargo traffic in July.

Capabilities having remained broadly stable, the load factor fell 2.1 points to 64.0%, while unit revenue per tonne kilometer (RATK) excluding currency is down from one year to another .

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) said last week that the tendency to transport passengers remained on an upward trend, but at a rate lower than the 10% rate observed during the rebound following the last economic crisis.

"The slowdown reflects the deterioration in economic growth and rising costs caused by rising fuel prices and the higher taxes in some countries," said IATA.

The association also noted that freight volumes, a barometer of trade, had not shown growth since July or August 2010.

Decrease of 16% of the profit of NYSE Euronext in Q2

NYSE Euronext profit on Tuesday, down 16% in the second quarter due to lower trading volumes on stock markets and derivatives markets in New York and Europe.

The transatlantic exchange operator in the middle of a merger with the German Deutsche Börse to nine billion dollars (6.3 billion), made a profit of $ 154 million, or 59 cents per share in second quarter , against $ 184 million, or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

Revenues rose 1% to 661 million.

On average, analysts expected a profit of 60 cents per share and a turnover of 652.7 million dollars, according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Brussels wants a freeze on Pac and a tax "Tobin

Anxious to reflect the period of restraint without precedent throughout Europe, the European Commission would propose a freeze on Wednesday of the CAP and the creation of a tax on financial transactions.

The proposed budget for the period 2014-2020, also called "financial perspective", should be adopted in the day and will kick off two years of tough negotiations on a budget expected a slight increase to about 1,000 billion euros over the period.

The equation is difficult for the Commission, it must both support the policy priorities such as infrastructure networks and research with minimal impact to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) put forward by France, the cohesion funds promised new entrants from Eastern Europe and the "discount" on the British budget contribution.

According to European sources, the trade-offs made Tuesday night and Wednesday morning are to freeze the financial amounts allocated to the CAP at the level of 2013, a ceiling of 371.7 billion euros over the period.

Deindexed of inflation and a possible increase in EU funding, this budget would increase the share of the CAP in the total budget significantly below the 40% it currently accounts.

However, Brussels would set the table an additional EUR 15 billion in order to "mitigate" the trend and anticipate several challenges in the years to come.

Within this envelope, 2.5 billion euros will be available to combat price volatility, $ 3.5 billion in reserve in case of crises and will be 4.5 billion designed to improve productivity, especially in the face of future competition Mercosur.

Moreover, according to these sources, the "cheap" British would not challenged and the cohesion policy of financial transfers to the poorest regions of the EU would be relatively preserved.

Lines of credit for infrastructure projects in transport, telecommunications and energy and the fight against climate change and research should be revised upwards, says it again.

"The Commission is an ambitious everywhere except on the CAP", says one of the sources consulted.

TAX "TOBIN"

The Commission has decided to counter the opposition of member states to review the EU budget to rise by offering to finance about one third through the creation of a tax on financial transactions, commonly known as tax "Tobin" said to be of the same sources.

According to plans developed by the Office of the Commissioner of Taxation, Aldirgas Semeta, and validated by José Manuel Barroso, President of the Commission, the tax would raise about 50 billion euros per year, or 350 billion euros of by 2020.

This scenario is based on a minimum tax of 0.01% on trade in derivatives transactions are easily relocated in financial centers outside the EU, and a higher tax of up to 0.1% on the exchange of obligations sovereign.Transactions in currencies fall also within the scope of this tax.

Supported by France, Germany, Spain and many other countries as well as MEPs and a large majority of Europeans, however, this idea could face British opposition to see tax issues be coordinated Brussels.

The Commission should also propose to review Twenty-seven of the common tax base for VAT in order to identify some of the income derived from them nationally to redirect them to the EU budget, which would further reduce the direct contributions made each years by the States.

However, the idea of ​​earmarking a portion of the revenues of the European market for carbon rights (Emissions Trading Scheme), which represents some 90 billion euros per year, should not be finally adopted by the Commissioners.

Once submitted, these proposals will be negotiated between Member States and, for some, with the European Parliament.

The chairman of the Budget Committee of Parliament, Alain Lamassoure, argued Wednesday that the institution would seek to make this debate as democratic as possible by involving the European Parliament and the public.

The Swiss franc crosses the threshold of 1.20 against the euro

The Swiss franc sign Thursday a new high against the euro, crossing the symbolic threshold of 1.20 to the euro while the disturbance case Greek market and pushing investors looking for safe havens.

The euro fell to mid-day more than one percent to a record high 1.1957 francs on electronic trading platform EBS, traders suggesting an acceleration of losses in the wake of 1.1970.

"It seems that the momentum for the pair euro / franc is accelerating downward," said Kathleen Brooks, currency strategist at FOREX.com.

The implied volatility of the euro / franc surged, reflecting the perceived risk, the options market, a new slide in the spot price.

Implied volatility on one month exceeded 12% against 11.2% the previous day.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) as expected Thursday maintained its expansionary monetary policy, but it evokes the strong Swiss franc as a major risk, especially for the export industry.

Analysts, comforted by the words of Jean-Pierre Danthine, board member of the SNB, consider it very unlikely the resumption of market intervention. "It does not appear that the NBS wants to intervene, and if it does, it would act in an environment of risk aversion," said Brooks.

The SNB has occurred between March 2009 and June 2010 to counter what she felt at the time as any excessive appreciation of the franc could cause deflation.

The franc also rose against the dollar, down from 0.5% to 0.8491 francs.

This explains the air hole through which the financial markets

Lower volumes, low volatility: the markets are now showing a certain wait. The analysis of Jean-Louis Mourier, director of economic research at Aurel BGC. A trader at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange What is the current trend in the markets?

Volumes down, low volatility and market shares without trend, which abut on their supports. However, they know no violent contraction. Long-term rates remain low, and found their levels of last December. Despite the return of sovereign risk spreads remain tight. It is difficult to conclude that markets may include a "new Lehman" in case of debt restructuring or a Greek economic scenario very negative.

You do not feel that it does not happen much on the financial markets?

Yes. Equity markets fell slightly in recent weeks.But we are very far from a violent correction scenario. The euro / dollar is volatile but scores no clear trend for several months. Similarly, the upward trend in commodities seems broken, but it is still difficult to speak of a market reversal. Oil prices, for example, remain very volatile in the short term and very sensitive to the slightest positive news on global growth, particularly in Asia. Finally, the bond market benefits from a decline in inflation expectations and signs of slowing activity. But overall, the prevailing feeling is that it happens "nothing" on the markets. After a violent rebound in equity markets on the recovery of activity, higher inflation expectations in the first quarter, the questions currently focus on a possible settlement activity.

What can happen in the coming weeks?

Several factors must be taken into account in the coming weeks. First, the Greek problem is far from resolved. Political discussion around this debt will continue. There is the deadline of 29 June with the payment of a further tranche of the aid plan of 110 billion euros but there is also the post … We need to find a lasting solution to the Greek debt, but when? Thereafter, growth in emerging and developed countries becomes more uncertain. Part of this "slowdown" is technical and ad hoc. Thus, the correction of raw materials is still limited. But it is still difficult to perceive a risk of sharp fall in activity. Less growth but no recession, a scenario mixed but not dramatic, can justify brutal tradeoffs.Moreover, in such a scenario, with raw materials without trend, inflationary pressures are declining. Finally, less growth also means a monetary policy still ultra-accommodative. Difficult to be negative when the Fed clearly wants to support markets.

Trichet calls for EU economic policy more centralized

The EU should consider developing the centralization of economic policy if it fails to address the crisis of debt in the euro zone, said Thursday the president of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet.

On the occasion of the awarding of a prize for his contribution to European integration, Jean-Claude Trichet suggested several ideas such as the formation of a Ministry of Finance or a European veto EU decisions on certain national economic.

At a time when the euro area is considering a new rescue plan to help Greece to emerge from its budget crisis, these words have boosted the euro to a one-month high against the dollar, 1, 4487.Around 1100 GMT, the euro was trading around 1.4468 dollars.

"At first, it is justified to provide financial assistance within the framework of a strong adjustment program," said Jean-Claude Trichet. "But if a country does not always happen, I think everyone agrees that the second stage must be different," he said.

"Would be too far if we envisaged at this second stage, to entrust the authorities of the euro area a stronger scrutiny and authoritative in defining the economic policies of a country, if they deviate dangerously ?

Continuing his argument, Trichet said: "One could imagine that the European authorities have a right to veto certain decisions of national economic policy.This award applies in particular some major budget expenditures and choices essential to the competitiveness of the country. "

In the longer term, Jean-Claude Trichet suggested the creation of a central Ministry of Finance for the EU, in line with the single market, single currency and European central bank.

"Not necessarily a Ministry of Finance in charge of a large federal budget. But a Ministry of Finance who have direct responsibility for at least three areas.

"First, the surveillance of budgetary policies and competitiveness. Second, all the typical responsibilities of the executive in the financial sector integrated EU.Third, the representation of the European confederation with international financial institutions ", he detailed.

In a speech Thursday in Singapore, Chancellor Angela Merkel also reiterated Germany's desire to achieve better coordination of European economic policies.

Roberto Cavalli waiting courtiers

Roberto Cavalli has a long line of courtiers, but intends to complete its restructuring before considering a sale or an IPO, said Monday the director general of the Italian fashion house.

"There is a long tail that is being formed because they feel that something is happening," said Gianluca Brozzetti summit organized by Reuters luxury.

It will nevertheless finish the renovation of its stores to a horizon of twelve to eighteen months and conclude a new license agreement before negotiations with potential buyers or consider an IPO.

"It is too early now.We want to wait to have references, "he said.

Acquisitions and initial public offerings have accelerated in the luxury sector, which has rebounded strongly since last year after the air hole of the financial crisis thanks to strong demand from emerging markets.

Labelux, the Austrian group owns brands including Bally shoe, has announced the takeover Sunday by Jimmy Choo.

Gianluca Brozzetti, who joined the family company Roberto Cavalli in 2009 after serving at Gucci and Louis Vuitton has also stated that there was often a sense that individual brands join a large group to reach their potential.

RENOVATION OF STORE

Founded 40 years ago by the Florentine Roberto Cavalli, home, best known for his animal prints, has returned to profit last year. She had been hit hard by the recession, partly because of financial problems Ittierre Holdings, its partner for Just Cavalli, a line aimed at younger audiences.

Sales of home fashion, however, declined by 6% to 176 million euros in 2010, partly due to an erosion of revenue from royalties on the mark.

In February, the house Roberto Cavalli has signed a licensing agreement for a term of 10 years with Renzo Rosso, the founder of the Diesel brand.With this long-time partner, Cavalli is planning to produce a new collection for the line Just Cavalli, and open new stores in China.

According to Gianluca Brozzetti, this new contract should not really have an impact before 2012-2013.

Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to grow strongly, said the director general of the Florentine house.After rising by 19% in the first quarter, he expects they should pick up around 29-30%, thanks to new store openings, with buoyant demand in China and expansion of the house the accessory segment.

Ebitda is expected to remain around 15% of revenues due to investments made to renovate its stores, which will include highlight its new line of accessories.

According to Gianluca Brozzetti, sales of the flagship store in Paris, which has been renovated, are encouraging.

"We've seen incredible increases … more than 10%," he said.