Financial, Business, Personal Finance News

Peak power: Var and Alpes-Maritimes on red alert

The people of eastern Provence-Alpes Cote d'Azur are encouraged to moderate their power consumption between 18 and 20 o'clock tonight. There is "a real break."

The departments of Var and Alpes-Maritimes were placed on red alert Ecowatt for the day Monday, meaning that there is a "real risk of power outage on the east of the Provence-Alpes-Cotes d'Azur, RTE has announced on its website

. While the EDF subsidiary responsible for carrying current provides a new record consumption in France for Monday 19:00, clients are asked to reduce their electricity consumption between 18:00 and 20:00. "Faced with the real risk of power outage on the east of the PACA region, all partners Ecowatt is mobilized," said RTE.

Due to the wave of extreme cold and the importance of electric heating in France, French electricity demand has surged in recent days and flirting with historic levels. RTE provides for the fateful hour of 7:00 p.m., around which electricity demand reaches its peak every day in winter, consumption of 97,900 megawatts (MW), beating the current record of 96,710 MW reached Dec. 15, 2010, according to his tracking software in real time Eco2mix.

Due to a capacity lower than elsewhere in the means of production and power lines, east of PACA and Britain are considered "peninsulas" much more vulnerable to a "blackout" electric. Interviewed on RTL, the boss of EDF Proglio said Monday morning that his group would face "in terms of production capacity," but acknowledged that the distribution system was weakened during record consumption. "I confirm that EDF will be the appointment of the electrical needs of France even in advanced today as" indicating that the electrician had "mobilized all its resources". "This is the distribution network that is involved. (…) The distribution network is made vulnerable in terms of capacity during periods of high peak and we ensure that this weakness does not result in cuts" , he said.

"These include two large areas in France who are in vulnerable situations, it is the West and South-East for reasons related to the fact that these regions, the inhabitants of these regions fairly routinely refuse capacity building routing, "he justified.  

As for the Val d'Oise, where some 3,000 homes were without power Sunday night due to a failure of an underground electrical cable, Mr. Proglio assured that "the situation will be restored in the day". The Var and Alpes-Maritimes and the United Kingdom had already been placed in "risk orange" dernière.RTE recommend particular week, also to avoid using appliances, turn off the electricity in unoccupied rooms and equipment in standby mode

. French consumption had grazed his record Thursday night at 96,377 megawatts, while strongly negative temperatures and snow affect France.

Munich Re expects a rebound in profits in 2012

Munich Re has done better than expected in 2011 with a net profit of 710 million euros, supported by the positive fiscal impact of damage paid last year, and expects to find in 2012 profit levels achieved in previous years.

The annual result of the German reinsurer, before deduction of minority interests, is significantly higher than the 590 million euros expected on average by four analysts polled by Reuters, while being significantly lower than the net profit of 2.43 billion euros achieved in 2010.

"Munich Re expects for 2012 a return to results equivalent to those recorded before the year 2011," we learn in a statement. 

The world of reinsurance also announced in a statement that it intends to maintain its dividend for 2011 to 6.25 euros per share.

The title Munich Re was stable around 13h00. He lost nearly 12% of its value in one year as a result of earthquakes that hit Japan and New Zealand and storms in the United States.

An agreement on Greek debt may be Wednesday

The negotiations between Greece and its private creditors on debt restructuring of the country could be concluded on Wednesday, said bankers and politicians, even if a rise in the role of the European Central Bank (ECB) is now seen as imperative in the case. </ p> According to the bankers and those responsible for the sector Private is now ready to accept a discount of about 70% of Greek government bonds held by it, which should reduce the debt of some of Greece 100 billion euros. </ p> The Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos for his part said that the discount could be even higher than 70%.</ P> That said, despite its size, this discount should not, according to officials, be sufficient to reduce the debt of Greece E equivalent of 120% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020, ratio deemed necessary, as part of plan to help the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union to make debt sustainable. </ p> As a result, more and more people involved in the case believe that the Greek public holders of securities – the ECB and national central banks of euro area – must participate in the debt restructuring of the country, continued bankers and officials.</ P> "The analysis is done at this stage is to see what measures the public sector could take to reduce the debt of Greece," he told Reuters a European Head , to the point of discussion. </ p> "The goal is to reduce the debt-GDP ratio to 120%, but even with the exchange of debt, it is still be ; s so far the public sector involvement is necessary. "</ p> A banking source said it was now accepted that private sector involvement would not produce the desired effects without the public sector also assumes some of the losses. </ p> "Now we discuss how," she added.</ P> LOSS FOR CENTRAL BANKS </ p> sources of the ECB told Reuters last week that the ECB had paid during the year e past, as part of its controversial program to buy back shares, 38 billion to buy Greek bonds with face value of 50 billion euros. </ p> The ECB finds itself position to record a nominal gain of 12 billion euros, a sum that could be reassigned to Athens without the ECB does not suffer losses. </ p> But one European official added that this still not enough to bridge the gap – estimated at 10 percentage points – between the discount that is about to make the private sector and the goal of a debt of 120%.</ P> The ECB and national central banks in the euro area could be forced to take losses on assets held or at least to waive payment of interest. </ p> But, according to sources, the results of some national central banks would not withstand such losses. </ p> "This complicates the discussion," said a banker about this possibility. </ p> Another source said that it might be necessary for one or more central banks to raise capital to offset possible a loss.</ P> While discussions on private sector involvement culmination Wednesday – after I started there almost seven months and have been interrupted several times – the resolution of the issue of public sector involvement could still take a few days. </ p> European shares closed higher, buoyed by the hope biento t reach an agreement between Athens and its private creditors on Greek debt and after the adoption of the new Treaty of fiscal discipline. </ p> Failing agreement, the Greece could end up in default of payment, when 14.5 billion euros of bonds will mature in March. </ p>

Three days after international issues overshadowed the G20 summit in Cannes, the budgetary situation and policy in Greece and Italy will again be the focus of discussions among finance ministers of the euro area and European Union on Monday and Tuesday in Brussels.

The meetings of the Eurogroup and the Ecofin Council will kick off a new week decisive for the future of the single currency.

EFSF: the real reasons of "nein" Germany to France

Germany justified its refusal to grant a banking license in EFSF citing treaties. But there are other explanations that the legal argument to explain the veto of Angela Merkel. German Chancellor Merkel, Slovenian Prime Minister Pahor and President Sarkozy in Brussels.

"The treaties do not allow it." In explaining his refusal of the French proposal to transform the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) in the bank, allowed to refinance at the ECB, Berlin relied on legal argument. This is one reason that stands. But that does not really understand the inner motivations of this veto.

Avoid a slap in the Bundestag

To convince Germany, Angela Merkel is not only that we must win, but all members of the Bundestag.The German Constitutional Court has recently decided as follows: all decisions on the euro zone must obtain the approval of Parliament. And given the difficulties faced by the Chancellor with his coalition, the vote of an instrument that could be used to finance massive debt fragile seemed complicated. All the Green MPs a vote last week has mandated an agreement of 620 elected and not 42 members of the Committee Affairs budget as planned initially. "Presumably, if the French proposal was adopted, the vote could have given rise to heated debates and passionate," said Céline Antonin, an economist at the OFCE.

Preserve the independence of the ECB

The institution is far out of his terms for a year and a half.She began to buy back debt from fragile countries in May 2010 (Greece, Italy and Spain in particular) and a further 4.5 billion euros of bonds last week, more than double the week before. In total, the amount of transactions on the secondary market amounted to 170 billion euros. The ECB has also put hundreds of billions of euros of liquidity available to banks that have struggled to find on the market conditions as favorable. But Germany has reluctantly agreed to these interventions. So was it not possible for her to give the EFSF a kind of drawing right on the ECB via the proposed banking license. Berlin would prefer to see the guardian of the euro back to its original objectives of controlling inflation, according to Céline Antonin. "It was created on the model of the Bundesbank.And right now we try to avoid it too so its mandate, even if the buyback is expected to continue in the coming weeks, "said the economist. According to the German press, the capacity of EFSF not would not be sufficient to take the baton, they should buy back the debt jointly.

Avoid stopping just over the ECB balance sheet

If the French solution was preferred, the EFSF would have borrowed directly from the ECB. In exchange, the Fund would have a guarantee of debt securities of countries weakened. This would have meant to burden the balance sheet of the institution and, ultimately, to require states to put the hands in their pockets to recapitalize the institution. Germany wanted not to get there, especially since the ECB has already accumulated a lot of bad loans."Central banks have already full of rotten loans, credit claims more toxic than the debts of the states in trouble," said the economist and the OFCE, Jean-Paul Fitoussi.

Standard & Poor's lowers rating of Slovenia

Rating agencies are firing on all cylinders against the countries of the euro area. After Spain and the "warning to France, it's time for Slovenia to suffer the wrath of one of them. The President of Slovenia Danilo Turk announced Sept. 28 elections early parliamentary December 4, following the overthrow of the center-left government of Prime Minister Borut Pahort.

The rating agency Standard and Poor's downgraded Wednesday by one notch credit rating of Slovenia, pointing degradation "of budgetary conditions" of the small Alpine country member of the euro area.

Standard and Poor's has increased from "AA" to "AA-" credit rating of the bonds Slovenian long-term, explaining that "budgetary conditions of Slovenia has deteriorated since the financial crisis of 2008" without that "the Government has presented a credible strategy of consolidation."

"AA-" is the fourth best score on the scale of Standard & Poor's and Ljubljana retains its status as issuer of high quality. In late September, it was Moody's had downgraded the sovereign rating of the country and threatened to lower it again, highlighting the fragility of banks and the risks to the government having to intervene again to support the sector.

Fitch's colleague had done the same in the process, lowering by one notch to "AA-" rating of the country, citing similar reasons. Fitch also regretted the rejection of the pension reform, "which is" a setback for long-term soundness of public finances. "

The decision by Standard and Poor's comes as pressure continues to deepen in the euro area, which is still unable to stem the debt crisis, while financial markets have placed their hopes in the top of the EU in Brussels on Sunday.

Tuesday, it is Spain which has been targeted by the rating agencies, with Moody's lowered the country's credit rating by two notches, and indicating that it might be lowered further in the medium term ."The debt burden has declined in Slovenia between 2002 and 2008 and has grown rapidly due to government policy to protect the economy and the banking system of the negative impact of the crisis," noted the agency in a statement.

Standard and Poor's has reported a "stable outlook" for the former member of Yugoslavia because "the expectation" of the agency to see "the government strengthen its finances and implement a program to consolidate budget ". The Slovenian government was overthrown in late September and early elections were called for December 4.

This election "is an opportunity for the new government to avoid another slip (public debt) and to implement structural reforms," ​​said the American agency.Former student model from the former communist members of the EU, Slovenia has been hit hard by the economic crisis and financial crisis of 2008/2009 and is struggling to recover.

Unemployment has nearly doubled in three years. The public debt rose from 22.5% to 43.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2008 and 2010, but remained well below the limit imposed by the Stability Pact and European growth (60%).

European banks must be recapitalized, says Juncker

Several European banks must be recapitalized, said Friday the president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, adding that intensive discussions on the subject would begin next Monday.

Luxembourg Prime Minister said at the microphone of the German radio Deutschland Funk that the problems of banks and debt of the States were going to get worse and you need a custom solution for banks.

Asked if a forced recapitalization was intended to force the banks to contribute more, Jean-Claude Juncker said: "Banks should be aware that if the current voluntary creditors is not sufficient (…), then we must realize that we need a mandatory participation of creditors. "

Fitch lowers ratings of banks Lloyds and RBS

Thursday Fitch lowered the long-term issuer credit rating of Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland to A, AA-cons before, considering that the probability of the British government come to their rescue had fallen.

Friday, its rival Moody's had downgraded 12 financial institutions in the UK, including Lloyds and RBS, also citing the likelihood of public support for any future crisis.

The rating agency, has downgraded its rating floors for UK banks of systemic importance, says in a statement placing the Barclays notes under review with negative implications, highlighting its exposure to volatile market activities .

"The dynamics of support are changing in the UK," Judge Fitch.

"Not only the banking system is large compared to the rest of the UK economy, but there is also increased political will to reduce the implicit support for banks."

Lloyds and RBS are held respectively 41% and 83% by the British state.

Around 1:50 p.m. GMT, action Lloyds lost 4.66% to the London Stock Exchange, while RBS yielded 2.91% and 5.08% Barclays. The Stoxx Europe 600 sector at the same time gave up 3.58%.

Sanofi, the reconstruction of the research will be long

Sanofi is expanding its portfolio of medicines to be able to rise to valuation levels comparable to its peers, but it will take time, analysts say.

The French laboratory, shaken by the lapels of the anti-arrhythmic Multaq Iniparib and cancer, has made the past five years only two new products on the market (and Multaq Jevtana in prostate cancer). It plans to launch 19 drugs by 2015, six next year, but warns that it expects no more than 5% to 7% contribution to sales in this horizon.

Of "minibusters", ironically some analysts, however, willing to give time to a group that has appointed the head of its research Elias Zerhouni, a world-renowned scientist.Since that appointment, the European regulator, however, restricts the use of Multaq, and Iniparib proved a failure in the last phase of its development.

"Sanofi has made significant progress in improving the profitability of its research but we know the results in eight or nine years. We have to accept a long development cycle", says Michael Leacock, an analyst at RBS.

The group announced this year more positive Phase III, and for including Lemtrada Aubagio (multiple sclerosis), Zaltrap (colorectal cancer), Visamerin / Mulsevo (prevention of venous thrombosis) and Lyxumia (type II diabetes).It is the latter that analysts consider the most promising, with potential sales they estimate at about 600 dollars in 10 years.

DIFFICULT TRANSITION TO MANAGE

"This is a cohort of small to medium products that will not be enough to transform the group, but at least it has more risk (of the type of anti-obesity pills) Acomplia when suddenly a product may weigh 15% to 20% of sales and cause large deviation in the share price, "an expert in the field into perspective.

Three years after the failure of Acomplia and the arrival of CEO Chris Viehbacher, Sanofi has launched a strategy to find new sources of growth that does not depend on its research and especially not the 'blockbusters', these drugs can make more than one billion dollars in sales.

Spurred by the loss of its major patents, the group has drastically reduced its costs, carried out an extensive cleaning of its project portfolio and achieved a score of acquisitions exceeding 23 billion euros, 14.8 billion for the purchase of the U.S. biotech Genzyme.

These efforts now allow to predict an average growth in sales of at least 5% by 2015 and an increase in earnings per share higher than the turnover.

At Bryan Garnier, Eric Le Berrigaud believes that the next six launches of the group potential "of around four billion euros in full peak at the end of the decade, with an additional lever on Lemtrada if it turns out be sure. "

"Are we willing to pay 'upfront' history to be born again Sanofi in 2013, while it was still difficult to cross two years?" Asked he, however.

The title Sanofi, which has lost 13% in 2010, returned 3.5% since the beginning of the year.The stock is trading with an average ratio of price / earnings ratio (PER) expected to close in September, against nine for the European.

"There is a beautiful story of stock market recovery to play but it will not materialize quickly. The big challenge is to manage the transition between the death of the great product, the rise of products from the pipeline and related growth drivers strategy, such as diversification and emerging markets, "said one banking analyst.

Karl Heinz Koch, of Helvea, notes that "most of their products are secondary and are not first class."For him, the portfolios of Novartis and Bayer are better than Sanofi, which is comparable to those of Roche and GlaxoSmithKline, and similar but better than Merck and AstraZeneca.

Beatrice Muzard, Natixis, concedes that "Sanofi back a little better in terms of development," but believes that the group "is still far short of the very good students like Roche, Novartis and Glaxo same."

"It's not for the pipeline that we recommend buying the title," she adds. "What motivates us is the visibility of growth and the fact that the group has secured a growth of at least 5%, a level that exceeds 60% as revenue grew at double-digit ".

EDF control 44 steam generators and Areva

EDF said on Wednesday an order for 44 steam generators for the renovation program of French nuclear power plants with a capacity of 1,300 Megawatts.

Areva and the U.S. company Westinghouse are assigned respectively the supply of 32 and 12 generators with a total of over 1.5 billion euros, EDF said in a statement.

For its part, Areva, which will receive $ 1.1 billion of that total, 16 states that the steam generators will be made available to the electrician in July 2016, eight in January 2017 and eight in January 2018.

This control of steam generators to the reactors with a capacity of 1300 MW is part of the program of gradual replacement of large components on power.

Each steam generator, weighing 438 tonnes, has an internal circuit consisting of 122 km of tubes for making steam, which then produce electricity via a large turbine.

All the tubes of steam generators will be manufactured in France at Montbard (Côte d'Or).