Financial, Business, Personal Finance News

Havas growth slows but the margin improves

Havas reported Tuesday a slowdown of its turnover in the second quarter but its operating margin improved significantly, however, in favor of a strict cost control.

The sixth largest global advertising did not provide forecasts for the full year 2011 in a statement.

In the first half, the group recorded organic growth of 5.6% of its turnover to 765 million euros, while analysts' estimates ranged from 6.0% to 6.5% organic growth in a range between 767 and 776 million euros turnover.

For comparison, the worldwide WPP grew 6.1% while the French Publicis rose 7.1%.

The second quarter alone, Havas rose by 4.5% after 6.8% in the first three months of the year against 7.6% and 7.2% for Publicis to the American Omnicom.

The group suffered from particularly persistent problems in Southern Europe, including Greece, Spain and Portugal.

Throughout the first half, the group, including Vincent Bollore is the chairman and largest shareholder, has recorded 940 million euros in net gains budgets, against 1.2 billion during the same period last year.

Inflation in the euro zone will remain above 2%, says Trichet

Inflation in the euro area is expected to remain significantly above 2% in the coming months, said Monday the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet.

"Everyone understands, especially in the present situation, it is crucial that the ECB maintains its inflation expectations well anchored. It is crucial to overall confidence," said Jean-Claude Trichet before the commission Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

How to reduce unemployment without growth

For the French economy creates jobs, it must grow by at least 2%. Unattainable at present. However, there are solutions to reduce unemployment. Here's why. Agency employment center in Nice

After four months of slight decline earlier this year, unemployment in France has increased considerably and the. In July, the number of unemployed rose by 36,100. It is the largest monthly increase since October 2009. It is particularly disturbing that this is the third consecutive month of increases. "Predictably, with growth at 0%," Xavier Bertrand has responded in an interview with Le Figaro on Friday. "But that does not detract from my belief that unemployment will go back down," he added.

It appears optimistic, our Minister of Labour. As rising unemployment reflects a depressed economic conditions.As recalled by Xavier Bertrand growth lights made the place the second quarter. And the second half does not look better, the two engines of growth – business investment and household consumption – being seized. The government also revised down its growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 – to 1.75% against 2.25% and 2 before. Some analysts are even more pessimistic: they expect a growth of only 1.5% this year and 1% next year.

Or to create jobs, the French economy should grow by at least 1.5%. And to reduce unemployment is to say, create enough jobs to absorb the growth of the labor force, growth must be at least 1.8%. And that's in normal times. The problem is that the French economy out of two years of zero productivity and a year of recession – in 2009.The catch must be more important. To reduce unemployment, it would now grow by at least 2.3% per year. We are far. "In order to reduce unemployment without growth, there are only two treatments, said Eric Heyer, deputy director of analysis and forecasting department of the French Office of Economic conjectures (OFCE).

Administrative treatment of unemployment

France has the chance – or luck – to have a dynamic workforce, due to a high birth rate (more than two children per woman). According to INSEE, the labor force, which stood at 28.35 million people in 2010, is expected to grow by an average of 110,000 people a year by 2025. More than 9000 people a month who register for employment center. To reduce the workforce, just out lists of people registered as unemployed.How? "In the radiant, by offering internships, apprenticeships and training, or putting them into early retirement and by providing job search," Eric Heyer lists.

Radiation administrative job seekers jumped unusual in July (25.1% over the month and 7% year on year). The SNU FSU, the majority union at employment center, sees the consequence of the recent computerization of letters sent to the unemployed. Some economists also point out that past governments in pre-election period, have used an administrative treatment of unemployment.

The current government is not immune to this temptation. Last February, Nicolas Sarkozy announced the release of 500 million euros to encourage the use of long-term unemployed and young people. On the menu: skills training and learning.Or people in learning or training out of lists of employment center. However, the government has no intention of using the subterfuge of early retirement, on the contrary, the exemption from job search (DRE), which allows the unemployed aged 60 and over not to look employment and reach retirement, will be removed in 2012. As for the pension reform passed in 2010, it extends the legal age of retirement and the age of full retirement. Which penalizes the elderly first. Since January 2008, unemployment of over 50 jumped 57%.

Social treatment of unemployment

"The alternative to reduce unemployment when growth is not the appointment is that the public sector taking the baton in the market sector," said Eric Heyer. This includes all forms of assisted contracts, that is to say, employment contracts mainly funded by the state.This is called the social treatment of unemployment. It is a great classic from the left. Martine Aubry, the Socialist candidate in the primary, has already announced that its first action as president, if elected in 2012, will be to remove the tax exemption of overtime to fund the creation of 300,000 "jobs of the future "- the little brothers of youth employment in 1997.

But this solution is also widely used on the right. The government is not talking about jobs for young people but CAE (support contracts in employment in the public sector) and ICE (employment initiative contracts in the private sector). 440 000 of these subsidized contracts to be financed by the state this year.

"While it is not sustainable contracts is not a panacea, recognizes Eric Heyer.But these subsidized contracts have two advantages: one is to target audiences that have the most difficulty in finding employment [the young and long-term unemployed for example], the second is to provide purchasing power to more, which is likely to boost consumption so the country's economic machine. "

German consumer confidence declined as expected

German consumer confidence is expected to slightly deteriorate in September, reaching a low of ten months in the context of the debt crisis in the eurozone and fears of a recession in the U.S. shows Thursday the monthly survey institute GfK.

This leading indicator of consumer sentiment, calculated on the basis of a survey of about 2,000 people, spring down to 5.2 in September against 5.3 in August, but in line with the expectations of the analysts interviewed by Reuters.

The component of macroeconomic expectations fell to 13.4 against 44.6 the previous month.But the purchase intentions were up, supported by a strong labor market.

"The deterioration of the debt crisis and the sharp fall in stock markets around the world at the moment weighs only slightly on consumer sentiment," said the institute GfK said in a statement.

"The domestic setting extremely positive, unemployment down and wages up offset these negative factors."

The unemployment rate in Germany came out in May and June to 7.0%, its lowest since the reunification of the country.

But recent statistics have fueled doubts about the ability to Berlin to continue playing its role as a locomotive of the euro zone, amid debt crisis and fears of a global economic slowdown.

In the second quarter, Germany posted a slower growth to just 0.1%, weighed down by a lowered consumption and low investment in construction.

German business morale has meanwhile posted a dip in August marked the most since the 2008 crisis, according to figures released Wednesday.

In this context morose, German households now fear being asked to contribute to increasing attempts to resolve the budget crisis European, is the institute GfK.

Largest economy in the euro zone, Germany pays more than a quarter of the invoice bailouts granted by the region to try to stem the debt crisis.

Wall Street opens up conservatively expected direction

Wall Street opened higher in cautious Tuesday, after a little less poor indicators of activity expected in China and the euro area.

Investors, who will be attentive to the numbers of new home sales in the U.S. in July (14:00 GMT, consensus: 310,000), should nevertheless be cautious when approaching the highly anticipated speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke on Friday conference in Jackson Hole (Wyoming).

Ten minutes after the opening, the Dow Jones took 0.22% to 10,879.02 points, the S & P 500 0.07% to 1,124.65 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.36% to 2354.28.

"The rise of today is not sustainable.This is exactly what we saw yesterday and indicators from abroad are not sufficiently great to generate this kind of increase, "said Phil shortly before the opening Streibl, MF Global.

"The market place too many expectations in Jackson Hole, and even if Bernanke may say something that is likely to stabilize markets, the probability (new monetary stimulus) is almost zero," he said.

Meanwhile, investors found little reason to buy.The first estimate of the index of purchasing managers of HSBC for the industrial sector in China in August is slightly higher than the final figure for July, but still indicates a contraction in activity.

In the euro area, the service sector has paused in August after two years of growth, an initial estimate of the PMI sector emerging the lowest since September 2009.

The banking sector will be particularly guarded on Tuesday after UBS announced the elimination of nearly 3,500 items, 45% in the bank, to save about two billion francs (1.76 billion euros) by the end of 2013.

At the opening of Wall Street, UBS shares gained 0.76% in dollars, while Bank of America lost 5.76%, investors fear that the group needing to raise equity capital due to legal troubles in mortgage activity.

Goldman Sachs fell by 1.29%, a government source who reported that the bank had hired Reid Weingarten, a lawyer of reputation, what markets see as the harbinger of a tough legal battle over the role of the bank in the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Japan is prepared to act on the foreign exchange market

Japan will act firmly against any speculation on currency markets, said Monday the Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda, thus demonstrating the will of Tokyo to fight against the soaring yen.

Yoshihiko Noda, who believes the upward trend of the yen as more and more unilateral, also indicated that Japan was in close contact with other countries on this issue.

"We will monitor the markets even more closely than before to detect any speculative activity.We leave open any measure, and we will act decisively when necessary, "he said.

The phrase was repeated several times during the day by the Minister of Finance himself, but also by the Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Secretary of the Government Yukio Edano.

Friday the yen hit a new historic high of 75.95 against the dollar. Anticipating action by the Japanese authorities, the markets have brought the dollar to rise to 77.23.Shortly before 0800 GMT, the dollar was trading against 76.70 yen.

Signs of strength in Tokyo, however, did not allow the equity markets to hide the fear of a return to the U.S. recession, and the Nikkei closed Monday down to a low of five months .

August 4, Tokyo intervened unilaterally in the currency market, but the operation did not prevent minvestisseurs continue to buy yen a safe haven in times of crisis.

According to Kyodo News, the trade minister said Monday Banri Kaieda coordinated action with the U.S. on currency markets would be preferable.

The names of Banri Kaieda and Yoshihiko Noda are most often cited to replace Naoto Kan when it leaves the head of the government, perhaps by the end of the month.

European shares fall further, fear of a recession

European shares ended down Friday, concluding a third straight week against a background of restless fears of a relapse into recession in major developed and sovereign debt crisis.

The CAC 40 index dropped 1.92% to 3016.99 points, but varied between a low of 2947.91 points (-4.2%) and a high of 3078.28 points (0.07% ).

For the week the index lost 6.13%, after falling 5.48% Thursday, bringing its slide to 17.82% since the beginning of the month.

"Above all, the anticipation of 'double dip' recession in the double way early 1980s, which haunted investors.This contraction is somehow accepted and caused by the austerity budget set up by European politicians, "said Eric Galiegue, president of Valquant.

Other major European markets, London has sold 1.01% 2.19% Frankfurt and Milan 2.46%. The European indices EuroStoxx 50 and 300 respectively Eurofirst fell 2.15% and 1.66%.Since the beginning of the month, the EuroStoxx 50 loose 19.15%, 13.32% and the London Stock Exchange German 23.45%.

On Wall Street, the S & P 500 fell by 0.15% and the Dow Jones 0.33% at midday in New York.

"The second quarter growth was well below expectations on many aspects: sluggish domestic demand, external demand risk and a clear concern about the financial variables, crystallized by market volatility," recalls Erick Muller Chief Investment Officer of Fidelity bond range.

The situation remains very FRAGILE

The implied volatility of the Eurostoxx 50 has remained virtually unchanged Friday (0.29%) but jumped 71.29% in three weeks.

"The month of August will bring real improvement on any of these points.The overall situation remains very fragile for the second half and the markets have adjusted the valuation of assets as a result, but suddenly long term, "said Erick Muller.

In this context, cyclical stocks and banks have once again suffered, Renault (-4.69%) showing the greatest decline in the CAC 40 lost 4.27% BNP Paribas in Paris.

Elsewhere in Europe, banks Unicredit and Lloyds fell 4.8% and 5.8%, while car manufacturers Porsche and Fiat gave up 4.45% and 4.3%.Their respective sector indices ended lower by 1.81% and 2.86%, the car even accusing the largest decrease sector.

Since the beginning of the month, European banks have unscrewed from 21.85% and 27.74% of the car.

The same causes leading to the same effect, investors fled to the assets with the least risk, such as gold, which recorded a new record of 1,877 dollars an ounce and earns nearly 14% since late July, or Yields on government bonds rated.

The rate of the 10-year Bund and of the French OAT maturing well remain virtually unchanged in late afternoon around by 2.1% and 2.77%, after falling in the morning at 2.031% and 2.713%.

"Despite the deterioration in the rating of the United States by Standard and Poor's, despite concerns in general about the astronomical amounts of public debt, interest rates on government bonds with very broad market fall," Valquant said in a weekly strategy note.

"This is a sign that investors are in full 'flight to quality', and they seek refuge in government debt," says the company.

Morgan Stanley reduced its forecast for global growth

Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecasts for the global economy for the years 2011 and 2012, the revision is stronger for developed countries.

In a note published Thursday, the U.S. investment bank now expects growth in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.9% in 2011, against 4.2% previously and 3.8% in 2012, instead 4.5%.

The GDP of developed countries is expected to grow by an average of 1.5% in 2011 and 2012 (against 1.9% and 2.4% forecast earlier), according to economists at Morgan Stanley who make a downward revision larger scale for European growth in 2012.

"We're lowering our forecast for GDP even in the euro area, and this time a full percentage point over the period 2011-2012 and we now expect GDP growth of 0.5% on average (significantly below our previous forecast of 1.2%), "they say, adding that the consensus expects a 1.5% growth in 2012.

Economists at Morgan Stanley state that they bring back their 2011 growth forecast for the eurozone to 1.7% against 2.0% previously.

These revisions, they say, stem from mistakes made in recent economic policy of the United States and Europe, as well as the prospect of harsher austerity measures in 2012.

For emerging markets, they see a slowdown in growth of 7.8% in 2010 to 6.4% in 2011 (against 6.6% expected earlier).For 2012, they lower their forecasts for the emerging 6.1% (against + 6.7%).

If they feel that developed countries are flirting with recession (understood as two consecutive quarterly contractions in GDP), they dismiss the scenario of a return to recession.

"In this context, we expect more rate hikes from the ECB but a rate cut next year – we are lowering our forecast on the refi rate (the ECB's main rate, Ed) to 1% by end 2012 against 2% previously, "wrote economists at Morgan Stanley.

After two increases this year, the ECB refi rate is currently 1.5%.

"As anxiety on growth gains, we expect that the 10-year Bund yield fell 2%," they add, by advocating caution on equities and underweight cyclicals.

Starbucks boss wants to cut donations to political

The CEO of Starbucks garnered supporters after his call for a suspension of donating money to American politicians until an agreement "fair" be struck between Democrats and Republicans on the debt and the budget.

In a letter made public Monday, Howard Schultz, who led a painful restructuring of the first global chain of coffee shops, also called on U.S. contractors to support the economy by hiring.

The head of NYSE Euronext Niedrauer Duncan and his counterpart Robert Greifeld Nasdaq OMX has already expressed support for this initiative.

"I think the idea of ​​Howard is good and I told him he could count on me," writes Robert Greifeld in a letter to executives of Nasdaq.

The call of the CEO of Starbucks is in addition to other interventions of senior private sector leaders who have moved strife torn with Republicans and Democrats in the debate over raising the ceiling of U.S. debt.

These divisions have contributed to plummeting consumer confidence to lowest in more than 30 years and have been cited by Standard & Poor's among the reasons which led to lower sovereign rating of the United States.

This weekend, the New York Times published a paper in its pages of one of its editorial on the call to Howard Schultz, in addition to an editorial in the American billionaire Warren Buffett for a higher taxes on the wealthy, including himself.

"These are highly respected leaders and they want something," said Todd Morgan, director and founder of Bel Air Investment Advisers in Los Angeles, whose company manages the portfolio of households with assets exceeding $ 20 million.

"I think other business leaders will follow suit and require Washington ambitious decisions, which could restore confidence in the economy of our country," he adds.

In his letter, Howard Schultz invites business leaders to engage with him "to suspend any further campaign contributions to the attention of the president and all members of Congress until a fair and bipartisan agreement be concluded that puts our country on more solid fiscal foundation for the long term. "

Howard Schultz CEO also urged his colleagues to invest in new projects or products that will draw up the economy at a time when the fears and uncertainties discourage companies from investing, consumer spending and banks to lend.

"Record levels of cash piling up in business, unused," said the head of Starbucks. "The only way to stop this circle of fear is to break it."

Wall Street expects a lot of indicators and quarterly

Still reeling from the worst three weeks that the U.S. markets have been in two and a half years, investors should seek from this Monday a break.

The blow by Standard & Poor's debt to the United States now behind them, the market should turn to the outlook for the U.S. economy and also look for evidence that policy makers in the euro area are able to limit the crisis debt.

The meeting Tuesday of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel in Paris should therefore be decisive for the markets.

The movement of widespread sale last week's losses increased in the S & P 500, which fell by 12.4% since July 22.If there is no indication that this trend is over, the sessions Thursday and Friday, however, ended up with lower volatility.

The week begins would be quieter, especially if the expected economic indicators still away the prospect of a return of U.S. recession.

"Each number indicates that the economy is not heading into recession will be a calming factor for the market in the coming weeks," said Peter Cardillo, economist at Global Rockwell Capital in New York.

Indicators next week will be closely monitored, including regional studies conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Philadelphia on manufacturing and sales in real estate.

The manufacturing sector is currently one of the stronger U.S. economy, but the ISM report for the month of July, published on 1 August, reported an unexpected slowdown.

However, other more recent data, including sales to detail () suggests that the U.S. economy manages to stay the course.

The results of the distribution groups are also clear from the horizon, and quarterly giant Wal-Mart, expected Tuesday, are eagerly awaited in this regard.

According to data compiled by Thomson Reuters, earnings for the group should have increased by 11.8% in the second quarter.

Several other major retailers as well as computer must publish in the week, including Dell and Home Depot on Tuesday, Wednesday Target and Gap, and Hewlett-Packard on Thursday.